The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) is the target interest rate set by the Federal Reserve System (Fed)'s policy-making body (FOMC). This target is the rate at which the Fed suggests commercial banks borrow and lend their excess reserves overnight to each other.

The FOMC meets 8 times a year to set the target FFR. This is supposed to promote economic growth. The overnight lending market sets the actual rate based on commercial banks' short-term reserves. If the market strays too far, the Fed intervenes.

Banks must keep a certain percentage of their deposits in a Federal Reserve account. A bank's reserve requirement is a percentage of its total deposits. End-of-day bank account balances averaged over two-week reserve maintenance periods are used to determine reserve requirements.

If a bank expects to have end-of-day balances above what's needed, it can lend the excess to another institution.

The FOMC adjusts interest rates based on economic indicators that show inflation, recession, or other issues that affect economic growth. Core inflation and durable goods orders are indicators.

In response to economic conditions, the FFR target has changed over time. In the early 1980s, inflation pushed it to 20%. During the Great Recession of 2007-2009, the rate was slashed to 0.15 percent to encourage growth.

Inflation picked up in May 2022 despite earlier rate hikes, prompting today's 0.75 percent point increase. The largest increase since 1994. It might rise to around 3.375% this year and 3.1% by the end of 2024.

New Stiglitz just dropped.

Here's the inflation story everyone believes (warning: it's false): America gave the poor too much money during the recession, and now the economy is awash with free money, which made them so rich they're refusing to work, meaning the economy isn't making anything. Prices are soaring due to increased cash and missing labor.

Lawrence Summers says there's only one answer. We must impoverish the poor: raise interest rates, cause a recession, and eliminate millions of jobs, until the poor are stripped of their underserved fortunes and return to work.

https://pluralistic.net/2021/11/20/quiet-part-out-loud/#profiteering

This is nonsense. Countries around the world suffered inflation during and after lockdowns, whether they gave out humanitarian money to keep people from starvation. America has slightly greater inflation than other OECD countries, but it's not due to big relief packages.

The Causes of and Responses to Today's Inflation, a Roosevelt Institute report by Nobel-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and macroeconomist Regmi Ira, debunks this bogus inflation story and offers a more credible explanation for inflation.

https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/RI CausesofandResponsestoTodaysInflation Report 202212.pdf

Sharp interest rate hikes exacerbate the slump and increase inflation, the authors argue. They compare monetary policy inflation cures to medieval bloodletting, where doctors repeated the same treatment until the patient recovered (for which they received credit) or died (which was more likely).

Let's discuss bloodletting. Inflation hawks warn of the wage price spiral, when inflation rises and powerful workers bargain for higher pay, driving up expenses, prices, and wages. This is the fairy-tale narrative of the 1970s, and it's true except that OPEC's embargo drove up oil prices, which produced inflation. Oh well.

Let's be generous to seventies-haunted inflation hawks and say we're worried about a wage-price spiral. Fantastic! No. Real wages are 2.3% lower than they were in Oct 2021 after peaking in June at 4.8%.

Why did America's powerful workers take a paycut rather than demand inflation-based pay? Weak unions, globalization, economic developments.

Workers don't expect inflation to rise, so they're not requesting inflationary hikes. Inflationary expectations have remained moderate, consistent with our data interpretation.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/

Neither are workers. Working people see surplus savings as wealth and spend it gradually over their lives, despite rising demand. People may have saved money by staying in during the lockdown, but they don't eat out every night to make up for it. Instead, they keep those savings as precautionary balances. This is why the economy is lagging.

People don't buy non-traded goods with pandemic savings (basically, imports). Imports don't multiply like domestic purchases. If you buy a loaf of bread from the corner baker for $1 and they spend it at the tavern across the street, that dollar generates $3 in economic activity. Spending a dollar on foreign goods leaves the country and any multiplier effect happens there, not in the US.

Only marginally higher wages. The ECI is up 1.6% from 2019. Almost all gains went to the 25% lowest-paid Americans. Contrary to the inflation worry about too much savings, these workers don't make enough to save, even post-pandemic.

Recreation and transit spending are at or below pre-pandemic levels. Higher food and hotel prices (which doesn’t mean we’re buying more food than we were in 2019, just that it costs more).

What causes inflation if not greedy workers, free money, and high demand? The most expensive domestic goods produce the biggest revenues for their manufacturers. They charge you more without paying their workers or suppliers more.

The largest price-gougers are funneling their earnings to rich people who store it offshore through stock buybacks and dividends. A $1 billion stock buyback doesn't buy $1 billion in bread.

Five factors influence US inflation today:

I. Price rises for energy and food

II. shifts in consumer tastes

III. supply interruptions (mainly autos);

IV. increased rents (due to telecommuting);

V. monopoly (AKA price-gouging).

None can be remedied by raising interest rates or laying off workers.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine, omicron, and China's Zero Covid policy all disrupted the flow of food, energy, and production inputs. The price went higher because we made less.

After Russia invaded Ukraine, oil prices spiked, and sanctions made it worse. But that was February. By October, oil prices had returned to pre-pandemic, 2015 levels attributable to global economic adjustments, including a shift to renewables. Every new renewable installation reduces oil consumption and affects oil prices.

High food prices have a simple solution. The US and EU have bribed farmers not to produce for 50 years. If the war continues, this program may end, and food prices may decline.

Demand changes. We want different things than in 2019, not more. During the lockdown, people substituted goods. Half of the US toilet-paper supply in 2019 was on commercial-sized rolls. This is created from different mills and stock than our toilet paper.

Lockdown pushed toilet paper demand to residential rolls, causing shortages (the TP hoarding story was just another pandemic urban legend). Because supermarket stores don't have accounts with commercial paper distributors, ordering from languishing stores was difficult. Kleenex and paper towel substitutions caused greater shortages.

All that drove increased costs in numerous product categories, and there were more cases. These increases are transient, caused by supply chain inefficiencies that are resolving.

Demand for frontline staff saw a one-time repricing of pay, which is being recouped as we speak.

Illnesses. Brittle, hollowed-out global supply chains aggravated this. The constant pursuit of cheap labor and minimal regulation by monopolies that dominate most sectors means things are manufactured in far-flung locations. Financialization means any surplus capital assets were sold off years ago, leaving firms with little production slack. After the epidemic, several of these systems took years to restart.

Automobiles are to blame. Financialization and monopolization consolidated microchip and auto production in Taiwan and China. When the lockdowns came, these worldwide corporations cancelled their chip orders, and when they placed fresh orders, they were at the back of the line.

That drove up car prices, which is why the US has slightly higher inflation than other wealthy countries: the economy is car-centric. Automobile prices account for 9% of the CPI. France: 3.6%

Rent shocks and telecommuting. After the epidemic, many professionals moved to exurbs, small towns, and the countryside to work from home. As commercial properties were vacated, it was impractical to adapt them for residential use due to planning restrictions. Addressing these restrictions will cut rent prices more than raising inflation rates, which halts housing construction.

Statistical mirages cause some rent inflation. The CPI estimates what homeowners would pay to rent their properties. When rents rise in your neighborhood, the CPI believes you're spending more on rent even if you have a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

Market dominance. Almost every area of the US economy is dominated by monopolies, whose CEOs disclose on investor calls that they use inflation scares to jack up prices and make record profits.

https://pluralistic.net/2022/02/02/its-the-economy-stupid/#overinflated

Long-term profit margins are rising. Markups averaged 26% from 1960-1980. 2021: 72%. Market concentration explains 81% of markup increases (e.g. monopolization). Profit margins reach a 70-year high in 2022. These elements interact. Monopolies thin out their sectors, making them brittle and sensitive to shocks.

If we're worried about a shrinking workforce, there are more humanitarian and sensible solutions than causing a recession and mass unemployment. Instead, we may boost US production capacity by easing workers' entry into the workforce.

https://pluralistic.net/2022/06/01/factories-to-condos-pipeline/#stuff-not-money

US female workforce participation ranks towards the bottom of developed countries. Many women can't afford to work due to America's lack of daycare, low earnings, and bad working conditions in female-dominated fields. If America doesn't have enough workers, childcare subsidies and minimum wages can help.

By contrast, driving the country into recession with interest-rate hikes will reduce employment, and the last recruited (women, minorities) are the first fired and the last to be rehired. Forcing America into recession won't enhance its capacity to create what its people want; it will degrade it permanently.

Nothing the Fed does can stop price hikes from international markets, lack of supply chain investment, COVID-19 disruptions, climate change, the Ukraine war, or market power. They can worsen it. When supply problems generate inflation, raising interest rates decreases investments that can remedy shortages.

Increasing interest rates won't cut rents since landlords pass on the expenses and high rates restrict investment in new dwellings where tenants could escape the costs.

Fixing the supply fixes supply-side inflation. Increase renewables investment (as the Inflation Reduction Act does). Monopolies can be busted (as the IRA does). Reshore key goods (as the CHIPS Act does). Better pay and child care attract employees.

Windfall taxes can claw back price-gouging corporations' monopoly earnings.

https://pluralistic.net/2022/03/15/sanctions-financing/#soak-the-rich

In 2008, we ruled out fiscal solutions (bailouts for debtors) and turned to monetary policy (bank bailouts). This preserved the economy but increased inequality and eroded public trust.

Monetary policy won't help. Even monetary policy enthusiasts recognize an 18-month lag between action and result. That suggests monetary tightening is unnecessary. Like the medieval bloodletter, central bankers whose interest rate hikes don't work swiftly may do more of the same, bringing the economy to its knees.

Interest rates must rise. Zero-percent interest fueled foolish speculation and financialization. Increasing rates will stop this. Increasing interest rates will destroy the economy and dampen inflation.

Then what? All recent evidence indicate to inflation decreasing on its own, as the authors argue. Supply side difficulties are finally being overcome, evidence shows. Energy and food prices are showing considerable mean reversion, which is disinflationary.

The authors don't recommend doing nothing. Best case scenario, they argue, is that the Fed won't keep raising interest rates until morale improves.

An inspiring reading list

I'm no billionaire or hedge-fund manager. My bank account doesn't have millions. Ray Dalio's love of reading motivates me to think differently.

Here are some books recommended by Ray Dalio. Each influenced me. Hope they'll help you.

Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari

Page Count: 512
Rating on Goodreads: 4.39

My favorite nonfiction book.

Sapiens explores human evolution. It explains how Homo Sapiens developed from hunter-gatherers to a dominant species. Amazing!

Sapiens will teach you about human history. Yuval Noah Harari has a follow-up book on human evolution.

My favorite book quotes are:

• The tendency for luxuries to turn into necessities and give rise to new obligations is one of history's few unbreakable laws.

• Happiness is not dependent on material wealth, physical health, or even community. Instead, it depends on how closely subjective expectations and objective circumstances align.

• The romantic comparison between today's industry, which obliterates the environment, and our forefathers, who coexisted well with nature, is unfounded. Homo sapiens held the record among all organisms for eradicating the most plant and animal species even before the Industrial Revolution. The unfortunate distinction of being the most lethal species in the history of life belongs to us.

The Power Of Habit by Charles Duhigg

Page Count: 375
Rating on Goodreads: 4.13

Great book: The Power Of Habit. It illustrates why habits are everything. The book explains how healthier habits can improve your life, career, and society.

The Power of Habit rocks. It's a great book on productivity. Its suggestions helped me build healthier behaviors (and drop bad ones).

Read ASAP!

My favorite book quotes are:

• Change may not occur quickly or without difficulty. However, almost any behavior may be changed with enough time and effort.

• People who exercise begin to eat better and produce more at work. They are less smokers and are more patient with friends and family. They claim to feel less anxious and use their credit cards less frequently. A fundamental habit that sparks broad change is exercise.

• Habits are strong but also delicate. They may develop independently of our awareness or may be purposefully created. They frequently happen without our consent, but they can be altered by changing their constituent pieces. They have a much greater influence on how we live than we realize; in fact, they are so powerful that they cause our brains to adhere to them above all else, including common sense.

Tribe Of Mentors by Tim Ferriss

Page Count: 561
Rating on Goodreads: 4.06

Unusual book structure. It's worth reading if you want to learn from successful people.

The book is Q&A-style. Tim questions everyone. Each chapter features a different person's life-changing advice. In the book, Pressfield, Willink, Grylls, and Ravikant are interviewed.

Amazing!

My favorite book quotes are:

• According to one's courage, life can either get smaller or bigger.

• Don't engage in actions that you are aware are immoral. The reputation you have with yourself is all that constitutes self-esteem. Always be aware.

• People mistakenly believe that focusing means accepting the task at hand. However, that is in no way what it represents. It entails rejecting the numerous other worthwhile suggestions that exist. You must choose wisely. Actually, I'm just as proud of the things we haven't accomplished as I am of what I have. Saying no to 1,000 things is what innovation is.

Unleash the power of persuasion and captivate your audience with compelling headlines.

As the old adage goes, "You never get a second chance to make a first impression."

In the world of content creation and social ads, headlines and titles play a critical role in making that first impression.

A well-crafted headline can make the difference between an article being read or ignored, a video being clicked on or bypassed, or a product being purchased or passed over.

To make an impact with your headlines, mastering the art of rhetoric is essential. In this post, we'll explore various rhetorical devices and techniques that can help you create headlines that captivate your audience and drive engagement.

tl;dr : Headline Magician will help you craft the ultimate headline titles powered by rhetoric devices

Example with a high-end luxury organic zero-waste skincare brand

✍️ The Power of Alliteration

Alliteration is the repetition of the same consonant sound at the beginning of words in close proximity. This rhetorical device lends itself well to headlines, as it creates a memorable, rhythmic quality that can catch a reader's attention.

By using alliteration, you can make your headlines more engaging and easier to remember.

Examples:

"Crafting Compelling Content: A Comprehensive Course"

"Mastering the Art of Memorable Marketing"

🔁 The Appeal of Anaphora

Anaphora is the repetition of a word or phrase at the beginning of successive clauses. This rhetorical device emphasizes a particular idea or theme, making it more memorable and persuasive.

In headlines, anaphora can be used to create a sense of unity and coherence, which can draw readers in and pique their interest.

Examples:

"Create, Curate, Captivate: Your Guide to Social Media Success"

"Innovation, Inspiration, and Insight: The Future of AI"

🔄 The Intrigue of Inversion

Inversion is a rhetorical device where the normal order of words is reversed, often to create an emphasis or achieve a specific effect.

In headlines, inversion can generate curiosity and surprise, compelling readers to explore further.

Examples:

"Beneath the Surface: A Deep Dive into Ocean Conservation"

"Beyond the Stars: The Quest for Extraterrestrial Life"

⚖️ The Persuasive Power of Parallelism

Parallelism is a rhetorical device that involves using similar grammatical structures or patterns to create a sense of balance and symmetry.

In headlines, parallelism can make your message more memorable and impactful, as it creates a pleasing rhythm and flow that can resonate with readers.

Examples:

"Eat Well, Live Well, Be Well: The Ultimate Guide to Wellness"

"Learn, Lead, and Launch: A Blueprint for Entrepreneurial Success"

⏭️ The Emphasis of Ellipsis

Ellipsis is the omission of words, typically indicated by three periods (...), which suggests that there is more to the story.

In headlines, ellipses can create a sense of mystery and intrigue, enticing readers to click and discover what lies behind the headline.

Examples:

"The Secret to Success... Revealed"

"Unlocking the Power of Your Mind... A Step-by-Step Guide"

🎭 The Drama of Hyperbole

Hyperbole is a rhetorical device that involves exaggeration for emphasis or effect.

In headlines, hyperbole can grab the reader's attention by making bold, provocative claims that stand out from the competition. Be cautious with hyperbole, however, as overuse or excessive exaggeration can damage your credibility.

Examples:

"The Ultimate Guide to Mastering Any Skill in Record Time"

"Discover the Revolutionary Technique That Will Transform Your Life"

❓The Curiosity of Questions

Posing questions in your headlines can be an effective way to pique the reader's curiosity and encourage engagement.

Questions compel the reader to seek answers, making them more likely to click on your content. Additionally, questions can create a sense of connection between the content creator and the audience, fostering a sense of dialogue and discussion.

Examples:

"Are You Making These Common Mistakes in Your Marketing Strategy?"

"What's the Secret to Unlocking Your Creative Potential?"

💥 The Impact of Imperatives

Imperatives are commands or instructions that urge the reader to take action. By using imperatives in your headlines, you can create a sense of urgency and importance, making your content more compelling and actionable.

Examples:

"Master Your Time Management Skills Today"

"Transform Your Business with These Innovative Strategies"

💢 The Emotion of Exclamations

Exclamations are powerful rhetorical devices that can evoke strong emotions and convey a sense of excitement or urgency.

Including exclamations in your headlines can make them more attention-grabbing and shareable, increasing the chances of your content being read and circulated.

Examples:

"Unlock Your True Potential: Find Your Passion and Thrive!"

"Experience the Adventure of a Lifetime: Travel the World on a Budget!"

🎀 The Effectiveness of Euphemisms

Euphemisms are polite or indirect expressions used in place of harsher, more direct language.

In headlines, euphemisms can make your message more appealing and relatable, helping to soften potentially controversial or sensitive topics.

Examples:

"Navigating the Challenges of Modern Parenting"

"Redefining Success in a Fast-Paced World"

⚡Antithesis: The Power of Opposites

Antithesis involves placing two opposite words side-by-side, emphasizing their contrasts. This device can create a sense of tension and intrigue in headlines.

Examples:

"Once a day. Every day"

"Soft on skin. Kill germs"

"Mega power. Mini size."

To utilize antithesis, identify two opposing concepts related to your content and present them in a balanced manner.

🎨 Scesis Onomaton: The Art of Verbless Copy

Scesis onomaton is a rhetorical device that involves writing verbless copy, which quickens the pace and adds emphasis.

Example:

"7 days. 7 dollars. Full access."

To use scesis onomaton, remove verbs and focus on the essential elements of your headline.

🌟 Polyptoton: The Charm of Shared Roots

Polyptoton is the repeated use of words that share the same root, bewitching words into memorable phrases.

Examples:

"Real bread isn't made in factories. It's baked in bakeries"

"Lose your knack for losing things."

To employ polyptoton, identify words with shared roots that are relevant to your content.

✨ Asyndeton: The Elegance of Omission

Asyndeton involves the intentional omission of conjunctions, adding crispness, conviction, and elegance to your headlines.

Examples:

"You, Me, Sushi?"

"All the latte art, none of the environmental impact."

To use asyndeton, eliminate conjunctions and focus on the core message of your headline.

🔮 Tricolon: The Magic of Threes

Tricolon is a rhetorical device that uses the power of three, creating memorable and impactful headlines.

Examples:

"Show it, say it, send it"

"Eat Well, Live Well, Be Well."

To use tricolon, craft a headline with three key elements that emphasize your content's main message.

🔔 Epistrophe: The Chime of Repetition

Epistrophe involves the repetition of words or phrases at the end of successive clauses, adding a chime to your headlines.

Examples:

"Catch it. Bin it. Kill it."

"Joint friendly. Climate friendly. Family friendly."

To employ epistrophe, repeat a key phrase or word at the end of each clause.

Internet's fantastic, right?

We've never had a better way to share our creativity.

I can now draw on my iPad and tweet or Instagram it to thousands. I may get some likes.

With such a great, free tool, you're not alone.

Millions more bright-eyed artists are sharing their work online.

The issue is getting innovative work noticed, not sharing it.

In a world where creators want attention, attention is valuable.

We build for attention.

Attention helps us establish a following, make money, get notoriety, and make a difference.

Most of us require attention to stay sane while creating wonderful things.

I know how hard it is to work hard and receive little views.

How do we receive more attention, more often, in a sea of talent?

Advertising and celebrity endorsements are options. These may work temporarily.

To attract true, organic, and long-term attention, you must create in high quality, high volume, and consistency.

Adapting Steve Martin's Be so amazing, they can't ignore you (with a mention to Dan Norris in his great book Create or Hate for the reminder)

Create a lot.

Eventually, your effort will gain traction.

Traction shows your work's influence.

Traction is when your product sells more. Traction is exponential user growth. Your work is shared more.

No matter how good your work is, it will always have minimal impact on the world.

Your work can eventually dent or puncture. Daily, people work to dent.

To achieve this tipping point, you must consistently produce exceptional work.

Expect traction after hundreds of outputs.

Dilbert creator Scott Adams says repetition persuades. If you don't stop, you can persuade practically anyone with anything.

Volume lends believability. So make more.

I worked as an illustrator for at least a year and a half without any recognition. After 150 illustrations on iStockphoto, my work started selling.

With 350 illustrations on iStock, I started getting decent client commissions.

Producing often will improve your craft and draw attention.

It's the only way to succeed. More creation means better results and greater attention.

Austin Kleon says you can improve your skill in relative anonymity before you become famous. Before obtaining traction, generate a lot and become excellent.

Most artists, even excellent ones, don't create consistently enough to get traction.

It may hurt. For makers who don't love and flow with their work, it's extremely difficult.

Your work must bring you to life.

To generate so much that others can't ignore you, decide what you'll accomplish every day (or most days).

Commit and be patient.

Prepare for zero-traction.

Anticipating this will help you persevere and create.

My online guru Grant Cardone says: Anything worth doing is worth doing every day.

Do.