You Misunderstand the Russian Nuclear Threat
Many believe Putin is simply sabre rattling and intimidating us. They see no threat of nuclear war. We can send NATO troops into Ukraine without risking a nuclear war.
I keep reading that Putin is just using nuclear blackmail and that a strong leader will call the bluff. That, in my opinion, misunderstands the danger of sending NATO into Ukraine.
It assumes that once NATO moves in, Putin can either push the red nuclear button or not.
Sure, Putin won't go nuclear if NATO invades Ukraine. So we're safe? Can't we just move NATO?
No, because history has taught us that wars often escalate far beyond our initial expectations. One domino falls, knocking down another. That's why having clear boundaries is vital. Crossing a seemingly harmless line can set off a chain of events that are unstoppable once started.
One example is WWI. The assassin of Archduke Franz Ferdinand could not have known that his actions would kill millions. They couldn't have known that invading Serbia to punish them for not handing over the accomplices would start a world war. Every action triggered a counter-action, plunging Europe into a brutal and bloody war. Each leader saw their actions as limited, not realizing how they kept the dominos falling.
Nobody can predict the future, but it's easy to imagine how NATO intervention could trigger a chain of events leading to a total war. Let me suggest some outcomes.
NATO creates a no-fly-zone. In retaliation, Russia bombs NATO airfields. Russia may see this as a limited counter-move that shouldn't cause further NATO escalation. They think it's a reasonable response to force NATO out of Ukraine. Nobody has yet thought to use the nuke.
Will NATO act? Polish airfields bombed, will they be stuck? Is this an article 5 event? If so, what should be done?
It could happen. Maybe NATO sends troops into Ukraine to punish Russia. Maybe NATO will bomb Russian airfields.
Putin's response Is bombing Russian airfields an invasion or an attack? Remember that Russia has always used nuclear weapons for defense, not offense. But let's not panic, let's assume Russia doesn't go nuclear.
Maybe Russia retaliates by attacking NATO military bases with planes. Maybe they use ships to attack military targets. How does NATO respond? Will they fight Russia in Ukraine or escalate? Will they invade Russia or attack more military installations there?
Seen the pattern? As each nation responds, smaller limited military operations can grow in scope.
So far, the Russian military has shown that they begin with less brutal methods. As losses and failures increase, brutal means are used. Syria had the same. Assad used chemical weapons and attacked hospitals, schools, residential areas, etc.
A NATO invasion of Ukraine would cost Russia dearly. “Oh, this isn't looking so good, better pull out and finish this war,” do you think? No way. Desperate, they will resort to more brutal tactics. If desperate, Russia has a huge arsenal of ugly weapons. They have nerve agents, chemical weapons, and other nasty stuff.
What happens if Russia uses chemical weapons? What if Russian nerve agents kill NATO soldiers horribly? West calls for retaliation will grow. Will we invade Russia? Will we bomb them?
We are angry and determined to punish war criminal Putin, so NATO tanks may be heading to Moscow. We want vengeance for his chemical attacks and bombing of our cities.
Do you think the distance between that red nuclear button and Putin's finger will be that far once NATO tanks are on their way to Moscow?
We might avoid a nuclear apocalypse. A NATO invasion force or even Western cities may be used by Putin. Not as destructive as ICBMs. Putin may think we won't respond to tactical nukes with a full nuclear counterattack. Why would we risk a nuclear Holocaust by launching ICBMs on Russia?
Maybe. My point is that at every stage of the escalation, one party may underestimate the other's response. This war is spiraling out of control and the chances of a nuclear exchange are increasing. Nobody really wants it.
Fear, anger, and resentment cause it. If Putin and his inner circle decide their time is up, they may no longer care about the rest of the world. We saw it with Hitler. Hitler, seeing the end of his empire, ordered the destruction of Germany. Nobody should win if he couldn't. He wanted to destroy everything, including Paris.
In other words, the danger isn't what happens after NATO intervenes The danger is the potential chain reaction. Gambling has a psychological equivalent. It's best to exit when you've lost less. We humans are willing to take small risks for big rewards. To avoid losses, we are willing to take high risks. Daniel Kahneman describes this behavior in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
And so bettors who have lost a lot begin taking bigger risks to make up for it. We get a snowball effect. NATO involvement in the Ukraine conflict is akin to entering a casino and placing a bet. We'll start taking bigger risks as we start losing to Russian retaliation. That's the game's psychology.
It's impossible to stop. So will politicians and citizens from both Russia and the West, until we risk the end of human civilization.
You can avoid spiraling into ever larger bets in the Casino by drawing a hard line and declaring “I will not enter that Casino.” We're doing it now. We supply Ukraine. We send money and intelligence but don't cross that crucial line.
It's difficult to watch what happened in Bucha without demanding NATO involvement. What should we do? Of course, I'm not in charge. I'm a writer. My hope is that people will think about the consequences of the actions we demand. My hope is that you think ahead not just one step but multiple dominos.
More and more, we are driven by our emotions. We cannot act solely on emotion in matters of life and death. If we make the wrong choice, more people will die.
Read the original post here.
More on Current Events
Cory Doctorow
3 years ago
The downfall of the Big Four accounting companies is just one (more) controversy away.
Economic mutual destruction.
Multibillion-dollar corporations never bothered with an independent audit, and they all lied about their balance sheets.
It's easy to forget that the Big Four accounting firms are lousy fraud enablers. Just because they sign off on your books doesn't mean you're not a hoax waiting to erupt.
This is *crazy* Capitalism depends on independent auditors. Rich folks need to know their financial advisers aren't lying. Rich folks usually succeed.
No accounting. EY, KPMG, PWC, and Deloitte make more money consulting firms than signing off on their accounts.
The Big Four sign off on phony books because failing to make friends with unscrupulous corporations may cost them consulting contracts.
The Big Four are the only firms big enough to oversee bankruptcy when they sign off on fraudulent books, as they did for Carillion in 2018. All four profited from Carillion's bankruptcy.
The Big Four are corrupt without any consequences for misconduct. Who can forget when KPMG's top management was fined millions for helping auditors cheat on ethics exams?
Consulting and auditing conflict. Consultants help a firm cover its evil activities, such as tax fraud or wage theft, whereas auditors add clarity to a company's finances. The Big Four make more money from cooking books than from uncooking them, thus they are constantly embroiled in scandals.
If a major scandal breaks, it may bring down the entire sector and substantial parts of the economy. Jim Peterson explains system risk for The Dig.
The Big Four are voluntary private partnerships where accountants invest their time, reputations, and money. If a controversy threatens the business, partners who depart may avoid scandal and financial disaster.
When disaster looms, each partner should bolt for the door, even if a disciplined stay-and-hold posture could weather the storm. This happened to Arthur Andersen during Enron's collapse, and a 2006 EU report recognized the risk to other corporations.
Each partner at a huge firm knows how much dirty laundry they've buried in the company's garden, and they have well-founded suspicions about what other partners have buried, too. When someone digs, everyone runs.
If a firm confronts substantial litigation damages or enforcement penalties, it could trigger the collapse of one of the Big Four. That would be bad news for the firm's clients, who would have trouble finding another big auditor.
Most of the world's auditing capacity is concentrated in four enormous, brittle, opaque, compromised organizations. If one of them goes bankrupt, the other three won't be able to take on its clients.
Peterson: Another collapse would strand many of the world's large public businesses, leaving them unable to obtain audit views for their securities listings and regulatory compliance.
Count Down: The Past, Present, and Uncertain Future of the Big Four Accounting Firms is in its second edition.
https://www.emerald.com/insight/publication/doi/10.1108/9781787147003
Johnny Harris
3 years ago
The REAL Reason Putin is Invading Ukraine [video with transcript]
Transcript:
[Reporter] The Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Momentum is building for a war between Ukraine and Russia.
[Reporter] Tensions between Russia and the West
are growing rapidly.
[Reporter] President Biden considering deploying
thousands of troops to Eastern Europe.
There are now 100,000 troops
on the Eastern border of Ukraine.
Russia is setting up field hospitals on this border.
Like this is what preparation for war looks like.
A legitimate war.
Ukrainian troops are watching and waiting,
saying they are preparing for a fight.
The U.S. has ordered the families of embassy staff
to leave Ukraine.
Britain has sent all of their nonessential staff home.
And now the U.S. is sending tons of weapons and munitions
to Ukraine's army.
And we're even considering deploying
our own troops to the region.
I mean, this thing is heating up.
Meanwhile, Russia and the West have been in Geneva
and Brussels trying to talk it out,
and sort of getting nowhere.
The message is very clear.
Should Russia take further aggressive actions
against Ukraine the costs will be severe
and the consequences serious.
It's a scary, grim momentum that is unpredictable.
And the chances of miscalculation
and escalation are growing.
I want to explain what's going on here,
but I want to show you that this isn't just
typical geopolitical behavior.
Stuff that can just be explained on the map.
Instead, to understand why 100,000 troops are camped out
on Ukraine's Eastern border, ready for war,
you have to understand Russia
and how it's been cut down over the ages
from the Slavic empire that dominated this whole region
to then the Soviet Union,
which was defeated in the nineties.
And what you really have to understand here
is how that history is transposed
onto the brain of one man.
This guy, Vladimir Putin.
This is a story about regional domination
and struggles between big powers,
but really it's the story about
what Vladimir Putin really wants.
[Reporter] Russian troops moving swiftly
to take control of military bases in Crimea.
[Reporter] Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops
and a lot of military hardware
at the border with Ukraine.
Let's dive back in.
Okay. Let's get up to speed on what's happening here.
And I'm just going to quickly give you the highlight version
of like the news that's happening,
because I want to get into the juicy part,
which is like why, the roots of all of this.
So let's go.
A few months ago, Russia started sending
more and more troops to this border.
It's this massive border between Ukraine and Russia.
They said they were doing a military exercise,
but the rest of the world was like,
"Yeah, we totally believe you Russia. Pshaw."
This was right before this big meeting
where North American and European countries
were coming together to talk about a lot
of different things, like these countries often do
in these diplomatic summits.
But soon, because of Russia's aggressive behavior
coming in and setting up 100,000 troops
on the border with Ukraine,
the entire summit turned into a whole, "WTF Russia,
what are you doing on the border of Ukraine," meeting.
Before the meeting Putin comes out and says,
"Listen, I have some demands for the West."
And everyone's like, "Okay, Russia, what are your demands?
You know, we have like, COVID19 right now.
And like, that's like surging.
So like, we don't need your like,
bluster about what your demands are."
And Putin's like, "No, here's my list of demands."
Putin's demands for the summit were this:
number one, that NATO, which is this big military alliance
between U.S., Canada, and Europe stop expanding,
meaning they don't let any new members in, okay.
So, Russia is like, "No more new members to your, like,
cool military club that I don't like.
You can't have any more members."
Number two, that NATO withdraw all of their troops
from anywhere in Eastern Europe.
Basically Putin is saying,
"I can veto any military cooperation
or troops going between countries
that have to do with Eastern Europe,
the place that used to be the Soviet Union."
Okay, and number three, Putin demands that America vow
not to protect its allies in Eastern Europe
with nuclear weapons.
"LOL," said all of the other countries,
"You're literally nuts, Vladimir Putin.
Like these are the most ridiculous demands, ever."
But there he is, Putin, with these demands.
These very, very aggressive demands.
And he sort of is implying that if his demands aren't met,
he's going to invade Ukraine.
I mean, it doesn't work like this.
This is not how international relations work.
You don't just show up and say like,
"I'm not gonna allow other countries to join your alliance
because it makes me feel uncomfortable."
But what I love about this list of demands
from Vladimir Putin for this summit
is that it gives us a clue
on what Vladimir Putin really wants.
What he's after here.
You read them closely and you can grasp his intentions.
But to grasp those intentions
you have to understand what NATO is.
and what Russia and Ukraine used to be.
(dramatic music)
Okay, so a while back I made this video
about why Russia is so damn big,
where I explain how modern day Russia started here in Kiev,
which is actually modern day Ukraine.
In other words, modern day Russia, as we know it,
has its original roots in Ukraine.
These places grew up together
and they eventually became a part
of the same mega empire called the Soviet Union.
They were deeply intertwined,
not just in their history and their culture,
but also in their economy and their politics.
So it's after World War II,
it's like the '50s, '60s, '70s, and NATO was formed,
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
This was a military alliance between all of these countries,
that was meant to sort of deter the Soviet Union
from expanding and taking over the world.
But as we all know, the Soviet Union,
which was Russia and all of these other countries,
collapsed in 1991.
And all of these Soviet republics,
including Ukraine, became independent,
meaning they were not now a part
of one big block of countries anymore.
But just because the border's all split up,
it doesn't mean that these cultural ties actually broke.
Like for example, the Soviet leader at the time
of the collapse of the Soviet Union, this guy, Gorbachev,
he was the son of a Ukrainian mother and a Russian father.
Like he grew up with his mother singing him
Ukrainian folk songs.
In his mind, Ukraine and Russia were like one thing.
So there was a major reluctance to accept Ukraine
as a separate thing from Russia.
In so many ways, they are one.
There was another Russian at the time
who did not accept this new division.
This young intelligence officer, Vladimir Putin,
who was starting to rise up in the ranks
of postSoviet Russia.
There's this amazing quote from 2005
where Putin is giving this stateoftheunionlike address,
where Putin declares the collapse of the Soviet Union,
quote, "The greatest catastrophe of the 20th century.
And as for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy.
Tens of millions of fellow citizens and countrymen
found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory."
Do you see how he frames this?
The Soviet Union were all one people in his mind.
And after it collapsed, all of these people
who are a part of the motherland were now outside
of the fringes or the boundaries of Russian territory.
First off, fact check.
Greatest catastrophe of the 20th century?
Like, do you remember what else happened
in the 20th century, Vladimir?
(ominous music)
Putin's worry about the collapse of this one people
starts to get way worse when the West, his enemy,
starts showing up to his neighborhood
to all these exSoviet countries that are now independent.
The West starts selling their ideology
of democracy and capitalism and inviting them
to join their military alliance called NATO.
And guess what?
These countries are totally buying it.
All these exSoviet countries are now joining NATO.
And some of them, the EU.
And Putin is hating this.
He's like not only did the Soviet Union divide
and all of these people are now outside
of the Russia motherland,
but now they're being persuaded by the West
to join their military alliance.
This is terrible news.
Over the years, this continues to happen,
while Putin himself starts to chip away
at Russian institutions, making them weaker and weaker.
He's silencing his rivals
and he's consolidating power in himself.
(triumphant music)
And in the past few years,
he's effectively silenced anyone who can challenge him;
any institution, any court,
or any political rival have all been silenced.
It's been decades since the Soviet Union fell,
but as Putin gains more power,
he still sees the region through the lens
of the old Cold War, Soviet, Slavic empire view.
He sees this region as one big block
that has been torn apart by outside forces.
"The greatest catastrophe of the 20th century."
And the worst situation of all of these,
according to Putin, is Ukraine,
which was like the gem of the Soviet Union.
There was tons of cultural heritage.
Again, Russia sort of started in Ukraine,
not to mention it was a very populous
and industrious, resourcerich place.
And over the years Ukraine has been drifting west.
It hasn't joined NATO yet, but more and more,
it's been electing proWestern presidents.
It's been flirting with membership in NATO.
It's becoming less and less attached
to the Russian heritage that Putin so adores.
And more than half of Ukrainians say
that they'd be down to join the EU.
64% of them say that it would be cool joining NATO.
But Putin can't handle this. He is in total denial.
Like an exboyfriend who handle his exgirlfriend
starting to date someone else,
Putin can't let Ukraine go.
He won't let go.
So for the past decade,
he's been trying to keep the West out
and bring Ukraine back into the motherland of Russia.
This usually takes the form of Putin sending
secret soldiers from Russia into Ukraine
to help the people in Ukraine who want to like separate
from Ukraine and join Russia.
It also takes the form of, oh yeah,
stealing entire parts of Ukraine for Russia.
Russian troops moving swiftly to take control
of military bases in Crimea.
Like in 2014, Putin just did this.
To what America is officially calling
a Russian invasion of Ukraine.
He went down and just snatched this bit of Ukraine
and folded it into Russia.
So you're starting to see what's going on here.
Putin's life's work is to salvage what he calls
the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century,
the division and the separation
of the Soviet republics from Russia.
So let's get to present day. It's 2022.
Putin is at it again.
And honestly, if you really want to understand
the mind of Vladimir Putin and his whole view on this,
you have to read this.
"On the History of Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,"
by Vladimir Putin.
A blog post that kind of sounds
like a ninth grade history essay.
In this essay, Vladimir Putin argues
that Russia and Ukraine are one people.
He calls them essentially the same historical
and spiritual space.
Kind of beautiful writing, honestly.
Anyway, he argues that the division
between the two countries is due to quote,
"a deliberate effort by those forces
that have always sought to undermine our unity."
And that the formula they use, these outside forces,
is a classic one: divide and rule.
And then he launches into this super indepth,
like 10page argument, as to every single historical beat
of Ukraine and Russia's history
to make this argument that like,
this is one people and the division is totally because
of outside powers, i.e. the West.
Okay, but listen, there's this moment
at the end of the post,
that actually kind of hit me in a big way.
He says this, "Just have a look at Austria and Germany,
or the U.S. and Canada, how they live next to each other.
Close in ethnic composition, culture,
and in fact, sharing one language,
they remain sovereign states with their own interests,
with their own foreign policy.
But this does not prevent them
from the closest integration or allied relations.
They have very conditional, transparent borders.
And when crossing them citizens feel at home.
They create families, study, work, do business.
Incidentally, so do millions of those born in Ukraine
who now live in Russia.
We see them as our own close people."
I mean, listen, like,
I'm not in support of what Putin is doing,
but like that, it's like a pretty solid like analogy.
If China suddenly showed up and started like
coaxing Canada into being a part of its alliance,
I would be a little bit like, "What's going on here?"
That's what Putin feels.
And so I kind of get what he means there.
There's a deep heritage and connection between these people.
And he's seen that falter and dissolve
and he doesn't like it.
He clearly genuinely feels a brotherhood
and this deep heritage connection
with the people of Ukraine.
Okay, okay, okay, okay. Putin, I get it.
Your essay is compelling there at the end.
You're clearly very smart and wellread.
But this does not justify what you've been up to. Okay?
It doesn't justify sending 100,000 troops to the border
or sending cyber soldiers to sabotage
the Ukrainian government, or annexing territory,
fueling a conflict that has killed
tens of thousands of people in Eastern Ukraine.
No. Okay.
No matter how much affection you feel for Ukrainian heritage
and its connection to Russia, this is not okay.
Again, it's like the boyfriend
who genuinely loves his girlfriend.
They had a great relationship,
but they broke up and she's free to see whomever she wants.
But Putin is not ready to let go.
[Man In Blue Shirt] What the hell's wrong with you?
I love you, Jessica.
What the hell is wrong with you?
Dude, don't fucking touch me.
I love you. Worldstar!
What is wrong with you? Just stop!
Putin has constructed his own reality here.
One in which Ukraine is actually being controlled
by shadowy Western forces
who are holding the people of Ukraine hostage.
And if that he invades, it will be a swift victory
because Ukrainians will accept him with open arms.
The great liberator.
(triumphant music)
Like, this guy's a total romantic.
He's a history buff and a romantic.
And he has a hill to die on here.
And it is liberating the people
who have been taken from the Russian motherland.
Kind of like the abusive boyfriend, who's like,
"She actually really loves me,
but it's her annoying friends
who were planting all these ideas in her head.
That's why she broke up with me."
And it's like, "No, dude, she's over you."
[Man In Blue Shirt] What the hell is wrong with you?
I love you, Jessica.
I mean, maybe this video should be called
Putin is just like your abusive exboyfriend.
[Man In Blue Shirt] What the hell is wrong with you?
I love you, Jessica!
Worldstar! What's wrong with you?
Okay. So where does this leave us?
It's 2022, Putin is showing up to these meetings in Europe
to tell them where he stands.
He says, "NATO, you cannot expand anymore. No new members.
And you need to withdraw all your troops
from Eastern Europe, my neighborhood."
He knows these demands will never be accepted
because they're ludicrous.
But what he's doing is showing a false effort to say,
"Well, we tried to negotiate with the West,
but they didn't want to."
Hence giving a little bit more justification
to a Russian invasion.
So will Russia invade? Is there war coming?
Maybe; it's impossible to know
because it's all inside of the head of this guy.
But, if I were to make the best argument
that war is not coming tomorrow,
I would look at a few things.
Number one, war in Ukraine would be incredibly costly
for Vladimir Putin.
Russia has a far superior army to Ukraine's,
but still, Ukraine has a very good army
that is supported by the West
and would give Putin a pretty bad bloody nose
in any invasion.
Controlling territory in Ukraine would be very hard.
Ukraine is a giant country.
They would fight back and it would be very hard
to actually conquer and take over territory.
Another major point here is that if Russia invades Ukraine,
this gives NATO new purpose.
If you remember, NATO was created because of the Cold War,
because the Soviet Union was big and nuclear powered.
Once the Soviet Union fell,
NATO sort of has been looking for a new purpose
over the past couple of decades.
If Russia invades Ukraine,
NATO suddenly has a brand new purpose to unite
and to invest in becoming more powerful than ever.
Putin knows that.
And it would be very bad news for him if that happened.
But most importantly, perhaps the easiest clue
for me to believe that war isn't coming tomorrow
is the Russian propaganda machine
is not preparing the Russian people for an invasion.
In 2014, when Russia was about to invade
and take over Crimea, this part of Ukraine,
there was a barrage of state propaganda
that prepared the Russian people
that this was a justified attack.
So when it happened, it wasn't a surprise
and it felt very normal.
That isn't happening right now in Russia.
At least for now. It may start happening tomorrow.
But for now, I think Putin is showing up to the border,
flexing his muscles and showing the West that he is earnest.
I'm not sure that he's going to invade tomorrow,
but he very well could.
I mean, read the guy's blog post
and you'll realize that he is a romantic about this.
He is incredibly idealistic about the glory days
of the Slavic empires, and he wants to get it back.
So there is dangerous momentum towards war.
And the way war works is even a small little, like, fight,
can turn into the other guy
doing something bigger and crazier.
And then the other person has to respond
with something a little bit bigger.
That's called escalation.
And there's not really a ceiling
to how much that momentum can spin out of control.
That is why it's so scary when two nuclear countries
go to war with each other,
because there's kind of no ceiling.
So yeah, it's dangerous. This is scary.
I'm not sure what happens next here,
but the best we can do is keep an eye on this.
At least for now, we better understand
what Putin really wants out of all of this.
Thanks for watching.
Bloomberg
3 years ago
Expulsion of ten million Ukrainians
According to recent data from two UN agencies, ten million Ukrainians have been displaced.
The International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates nearly 6.5 million Ukrainians have relocated. Most have fled the war zones around Kyiv and eastern Ukraine, including Dnipro, Zhaporizhzhia, and Kharkiv. Most IDPs have fled to western and central Ukraine.
Since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, 3.6 million people have crossed the border to seek refuge in neighboring countries, according to the latest UN data. While most refugees have fled to Poland and Romania, many have entered Russia.
Internally displaced figures are IOM estimates as of March 19, based on 2,000 telephone interviews with Ukrainians aged 18 and older conducted between March 9-16. The UNHCR compiled the figures for refugees to neighboring countries on March 21 based on official border crossing data and its own estimates. The UNHCR's top-line total is lower than the country totals because Romania and Moldova totals include people crossing between the two countries.
Sources: IOM, UNHCR
According to IOM estimates based on telephone interviews with a representative sample of internally displaced Ukrainians, over 53% of those displaced are women, and over 60% of displaced households have children.
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Chritiaan Hetzner
3 years ago
Mystery of the $1 billion'meme stock' that went to $400 billion in days
Who is AMTD Digital?
An unknown Hong Kong corporation joined the global megacaps worth over $500 billion on Tuesday.
The American Depository Share (ADS) with the ticker code HKD gapped at the open, soaring 25% over the previous closing price as trading began, before hitting an intraday high of $2,555.
At its peak, its market cap was almost $450 billion, more than Facebook parent Meta or Alibaba.
Yahoo Finance reported a daily volume of 350,500 shares, the lowest since the ADS began trading and much below the average of 1.2 million.
Despite losing a fifth of its value on Wednesday, it's still worth more than Toyota, Nike, McDonald's, or Walt Disney.
The company sold 16 million shares at $7.80 each in mid-July, giving it a $1 billion market valuation.
Why the boom?
That market cap seems unjustified.
According to SEC reports, its income-generating assets barely topped $400 million in March. Fortune's emails and calls went unanswered.
Website discloses little about company model. Its one-minute business presentation film uses a Star Wars–like design to sell the company as a "one-stop digital solutions platform in Asia"
The SEC prospectus explains.
AMTD Digital sells a "SpiderNet Ecosystems Solutions" kind of club membership that connects enterprises. This is the bulk of its $25 million annual revenue in April 2021.
Pretax profits have been higher than top line over the past three years due to fair value accounting gains on Appier, DayDayCook, WeDoctor, and five Asian fintechs.
AMTD Group, the company's parent, specializes in investment banking, hotel services, luxury education, and media and entertainment. AMTD IDEA, a $14 billion subsidiary, is also traded on the NYSE.
“Significant volatility”
Why AMTD Digital listed in the U.S. is unknown, as it informed investors in its share offering prospectus that could delist under SEC guidelines.
Beijing's red tape prevents the Sarbanes-Oxley Board from inspecting its Chinese auditor.
This frustrates Chinese stock investors. If the U.S. and China can't achieve a deal, 261 Chinese companies worth $1.3 trillion might be delisted.
Calvin Choi left UBS to become AMTD Group's CEO.
His capitalist background and status as a Young Global Leader with the World Economic Forum don't stop him from praising China's Communist party or celebrating the "glory and dream of the Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" a century after its creation.
Despite having an executive vice chairman with a record of battling corruption and ties to Carrie Lam, Beijing's previous proconsul in Hong Kong, Choi is apparently being targeted for a two-year industry ban by the city's securities regulator after an investor accused Choi of malfeasance.
Some CMIG-funded initiatives produced money, but he didn't give us the proceeds, a corporate official told China's Caixin in October 2020. We don't know if he misappropriated or lost some money.
A seismic anomaly
In fundamental analysis, where companies are valued based on future cash flows, AMTD Digital's mind-boggling market cap is a statistical aberration that should occur once every hundred years.
AMTD Digital doesn't know why it's so valuable. In a thank-you letter to new shareholders, it said it was confused by the stock's performance.
Since its IPO, the company has seen significant ADS price volatility and active trading volume, it said Tuesday. "To our knowledge, there have been no important circumstances, events, or other matters since the IPO date."
Permabears awoke after the jump. Jim Chanos asked if "we're all going to ignore the $400 billion meme stock in the room," while Nate Anderson called AMTD Group "sketchy."
It happened the same day SEC Chair Gary Gensler praised the 20th anniversary of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, aimed to restore trust in America's financial markets after the Enron and WorldCom accounting fraud scandals.
The run-up revived unpleasant memories of Robinhood's decision to limit retail investors' ability to buy GameStop, regarded as a measure to protect hedge funds invested in the meme company.
Why wasn't HKD's buy button removed? Because retail wasn't behind it?" tweeted Gensler on Tuesday. "Real stock fraud. "You're worthless."
INTΞGRITY team
3 years ago
Terms of Service
Effective: August 31, 2022
These Terms of Service ("Terms") govern your access to and use of INTΞGRITY’s (or "we") websites, mobile applications, and other online products and services (collectively, the "Services"). By clicking your assent (e.g. "Continue," "Sign-in," or "Sign-up") or by utilizing our Services, you consent to these Terms, including the mandatory arbitration provision and class action waiver in the Resolving Disputes; Binding Arbitration Section.
Our Privacy Policy describes how we gather and utilize your information, while our Rules detail your duties when utilizing our Services. You agree to be bound by these Terms and our Rules by utilizing our Services. Please refer to our Privacy Statement for details on how we collect, utilize, disclose, and otherwise manage your information.
Please contact us at hello@int3grity.com if you have any queries regarding these Terms or our Services.
Account Details and Responsibilities
You are responsible for your use of the Services and any content you contribute, including compliance with all relevant laws. The Services may host content that is protected by the intellectual property rights of third parties. Please do not copy, post, download, or distribute content without permission.
You must adhere to our Rules when using the Services.
To use any or all of our services, you may need to register for an account. Contribute to the protection of your account. Protect your account's password, and maintain accurate account details. We advise you not to share your password with anyone else.
If you are accepting these Terms and using the Services on behalf of someone else (such as another person or entity), you confirm that you are allowed to do so, and the words "you" or "your" in these Terms refer to that other person or entity.
You must be at least 13 years old to access our services.
If you use the Services to access, collect, or otherwise utilize the personal information of other INTΞGRITY users ("Personal Information"), you agree to comply with all applicable laws. You also undertake not to sell any Personal Information, where "sell" has the meaning ascribed to it by relevant legislation.
For Personal Information you provide to us (as a Newsletter Editor, for example), you represent and warrant that you have lawfully collected the Personal Information and that you or a third party have provided all required notices and obtained all required consents prior to collecting the Personal Information. You further represent and warrant that INTΞGRITY’s use of such Personal Information in accordance with the purposes for which you provided the Personal Information will not violate, misappropriate, or infringe any rights of a third party (including intellectual property rights or privacy rights) or cause us to violate any applicable laws.
The Services' User Content
INTΞGRITY may monitor your conduct and material for compliance with these Terms and our Rules, and reserves the right to remove any content that violates these guidelines.
INTΞGRITY maintains the right to remove or disable content that is accused to violate the intellectual property rights of others, as well as to cancel the accounts of repeat infringers. We respond to notifications of alleged copyright violations if they comply with the law; please report such notices using our Copyright Policy.
Ownership and Rights
You maintain ownership of all content that you submit, upload, or display on or through the Services.
By submitting, posting, or displaying content on or through the Services, unless otherwise agreed in writing, you grant INTΞGRITY a nonexclusive, royalty-free, worldwide, fully paid, and sublicensable license to use, reproduce, modify, adapt, publish, translate, create derivative works from, distribute, publicly perform and display your content and any name, username or likeness provided in connection with your content in all media formats and distribution methods now known or later developed.
INTΞGRITY requires this license because you are the owner of your material, and INTΞGRITY cannot show it across its multiple platforms (mobile, online) without your consent.
This type of license is also required for content distribution throughout our Services. For example, you may publish a piece on INTΞGRITY. It is duplicated as versions on both our website and app, and distributed to many locations on INTΞGRITY, including the homepage and reading lists. A tweak could be that we display a fragment of your work as a preview (rather than the entire post), with attribution. An example of a derivative work might be a list of top authors or quotations on INTΞGRITY that includes chunks of your article, again with full attribution. This license solely applies to our Services and does not grant us permissions outside of our Services.
So long as you comply with these Terms, INTΞGRITY grants you a limited, non-exclusive, personal, and non-transferable license to access and utilize our Services.
Copyright, trademark, and other United States and international laws protect the Services. These Terms do not grant you any right, title, or interest in the Services, the material posted by other users on the Services, or INTΞGRITY’s trademarks, logos, or other brand characteristics.
In addition to the content you submit, post, or display on our Services, we appreciate your feedback, which may include your thoughts, ideas, and suggestions regarding our Services. This input may be used for any reason at our sole discretion and without obligation to you. We may treat your comments as non-confidential.
We reserve the right, at our sole discretion, to discontinue the Services or any of its features. In addition, we reserve the right to impose limits on use and storage, and to remove or restrict the distribution of content on the Services.
Termination
You are allowed to terminate your use of our services at any time. We have the right to stop or cancel your use of the Services with or without notice.
Moving and Processing Information
To enable us to deliver our Services, you accept that we may handle, transfer, and retain information about you in the United States and other countries, where you may not enjoy the same rights and protections as you do under local law.
Indemnification
To the maximum extent permitted by applicable law, you will indemnify, defend, and hold harmless INTΞGRITY, and our officers, directors, agents, partners, and employees (collectively, the "INTΞGRITY Parties"), from and against any losses, liabilities, claims, demands, damages, expenses or costs ("Claims") arising out of or relating to your violation, misappropriation, or infringement of any rights of another (including intellectual property rights or privacy rights). You undertake to promptly notify INTΞGRITY Parties of any third-party Claims, to assist INTΞGRITY Parties in fighting such Claims, and to pay any fees, charges, and expenses connected with defending such Claims (including attorneys' fees). You further agree that, at INTΞGRITY’s sole discretion, the INTΞGRITY Parties will govern the defense or settlement of any third-party Claims.
Disclaimers — Services Provided "As Is"
INTΞGRITY strives to provide you with excellent Services, but there are certain things we cannot guarantee. Utilization of our services is at your own risk. You acknowledge that our Services and any content uploaded or shared by users on the Services are given "as is" and "as available" without explicit or implied warranties of any kind, including warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, title, and non-infringement. In addition, INTΞGRITY does not represent or promise that our Services are accurate, comprehensive, dependable, up-to-date, or error-free. No advice or information gained from INTΞGRITY or via the Services shall create any warranty or representation unless expressly set forth in this section. INTΞGRITY may provide information on third-party products, services, activities, or events, or we may permit third parties to make their material and information accessible via our Services (collectively, "Third-Party Content"). We neither control nor endorse any Third-Party Content, nor do we make any claims or warranties about it. Accessing and utilizing Third-Party Content is at your own risk. The disclaimers in this section may not apply to you if they are prohibited in your location.
Limitation of Liability
We do not exclude or limit our obligation to you where it would be unlawful to do so; this includes any liability for the gross negligence, fraud, or willful misconduct of INTΞGRITY or the other INTΞGRITY Parties in providing the Services. In jurisdictions where the foregoing exclusions are not permitted, our liability to you is limited to losses and damages that are reasonably foreseeable as a result of our failure to exercise reasonable care and skill or breach of contract with you. This paragraph does not impact consumer rights that cannot be waived or limited by contract.
In jurisdictions that permit liability exclusions or limits, INTΞGRITY and INTΞGRITY Parties will not be liable for:
(a) Any indirect, consequential, exemplary, incidental, punitive, or extraordinary damages, or any loss of use, data, or profits, based on any legal theory, even if INTΞGRITY or the other INTΞGRITY Parties were advised of the potential of such damages.
(b) Except for the types of liability we cannot limit by law (as described in this section), we limit the total liability of INTΞGRITY and the other INTΞGRITY Parties for any claim arising out of or related to these Terms or our Services, regardless of the form of action, to $100.00 USD.
Arbitration; Resolution of Disputes
We intend to address your concerns without filing a formal lawsuit. Before making a claim against INTΞGRITY, you agree to contact us and attempt to resolve the dispute informally by emailing hello@int3grity.com or by sending certified mail to INTΞGRITY, P.O. JOY, 479 Jessie St, San Francisco, CA 94103. The notice must (a) contain your name, address, email address, and telephone number; (b) identify the nature and grounds of the claim; and (c) detail the relief requested. Our notice to you will be sent to the email address linked with your online account and will contain the information specified in the preceding section. Any party may commence a formal procedure if we are unable to reach a resolution within thirty (30) days of the date of any notice.
Please read the following section carefully because it compels you to arbitrate certain claims and disputes with INTΞGRITY and limits the method in which you can seek redress from us, unless you opt out of arbitration by following the steps provided below. This arbitration provision does not permit class or representative lawsuits or arbitrations. In addition, arbitration prohibits you from filing a lawsuit or having a jury trial.
(a) Absence of Representative Actions You and INTΞGRITY agree that any dispute arising out of or relating to these Terms or our Services is personal to you and INTΞGRITY and will be resolved entirely via individual action, and not by class arbitration, class action, or other representative procedure.
(b) Dispute Arbitration. Except for small claims disputes in which you or INTΞGRITY seeks to bring an individual action in small claims court located in the county where you reside and disputes in which you or INTΞGRITY seeks injunctive or other equitable relief for the alleged infringement or misappropriation of intellectual property, you and INTΞGRITY waive your rights to a jury trial and to have any other dispute arising out of or relating to these Terms or our Services, including claims related to privity of contract, decided by a jury. All Disputes submitted to JAMS shall be decided by confidential, binding arbitration before a single arbitrator. If you are a consumer, you may choose to have the arbitration in your county of residence. A "consumer" is a person who uses the Services for personal, family, or household purposes for the purposes of this provision. You and INTΞGRITY agree that Disputes shall be resolved using the JAMS Streamlined Arbitration Rules and Procedures ("JAMS Rules"). The latest version of the JAMS Rules is accessible on the JAMS website and is incorporated herein by reference. Either you accept and agree that you have read and comprehended the JAMS Rules or you forfeit your right to read the JAMS Rules and any claim that the JAMS Rules are unreasonable or should not apply for any reason.
(c) You and INTΞGRITY agree that these Terms affect interstate commerce and that the enforceability of this provision is subject to the Federal Arbitration Act, 9 U.S.C. 1 et seq. (the "FAA"), to the maximum extent permissible by applicable law. As limited by the FAA, these Terms, and the JAMS Rules, the arbitrator will have sole authority to make all procedural and substantive judgments regarding any Dispute, and to grant any remedy that would otherwise be available in court, including the authority to determine arbitrability. The arbitrator may only conduct an individual arbitration and may not consolidate the claims of more than one party, preside over any sort of class or representative procedure, or preside over any proceeding involving more than one party.
d) The arbitration will permit the discovery or exchange of nonconfidential information pertinent to the Dispute. The arbitrator, INTΞGRITY, and you will maintain the confidentiality of all arbitration proceedings, judgments, and awards, as well as any information gathered, prepared, or presented for the purposes of the arbitration or relating to the Dispute(s) therein. Unless the law specifies otherwise, the arbitrator will have the right to make decisions that protect confidentiality. The duty of confidentiality does not apply where disclosure is required to prepare for or conduct the arbitration hearing on the merits, in connection with a court application for a preliminary remedy, in connection with a judicial challenge to an arbitration award or its enforcement, or where disclosure is otherwise required by law or judicial decision.
e) You and INTΞGRITY agree that for any arbitration you begin, you will pay the filing fee (up to $250 if you are a consumer) and INTΞGRITY will pay the remaining JAMS fees and costs. INTΞGRITY will pay all JAMS fees and costs for any and all arbitrations it initiates. You and INTΞGRITY agree that the state and federal courts of California and the United States located in San Francisco have exclusive jurisdiction over any appeals and the implementation of an arbitration award.
(f) Any Dispute must be filed within one year after the relevant claim arose; otherwise, the Dispute is permanently barred, meaning that neither you nor INTΞGRITY will be able to assert the claim.
(g) You have the right to opt-out of binding arbitration within 30 days of the date you initially accepted the terms of this section by sending an email to hello@int3grity.com. For the opt-out notification to be effective, it must include your full name and address and clearly explain your intent to opt out of binding arbitration. By declining binding arbitration, you consent to the resolution of Disputes in accordance with "Governing Law and Venue" below.
(h) If any portion of this section is found to be unenforceable or unlawful for any reason: (1) the unenforceable or unlawful provision shall be severed from these Terms; (2) the severance of the unenforceable or unlawful provision shall have no effect whatsoever on the remainder of this section or the parties' ability to compel arbitration of any remaining claims on an individual basis pursuant to this section; and (3) to the extent that any claims must therefore proceed on an individual basis, the parties agree to arbitrate those claims on an individual basis. In addition, if it is determined that any portion of this section prohibits an individual claim seeking public injunctive relief, that provision will be null and void to the extent that such relief may be sought outside of arbitration, and the balance of this section will be enforceable.
Statute and Location
These Terms and any dispute that may arise between you and INTΞGRITY are governed by California law, excluding its conflict of law provisions. Any issue between the parties that is not arbitrable or cannot be heard in small claims court will be determined by the state or federal courts of California and the United States, sitting in San Francisco, California.
Some nations have regulations that require agreements to be controlled by the consumer's country's laws. These statutes are not overridden by this paragraph.
Amendments
Periodically, we may make modifications to these Terms. If we make modifications, we will notify you by sending an email to the address connected with your account, providing an in-product message, or amending the date at the top of these Terms. Unless we specify otherwise in our notification, the modified Terms will take effect immediately, and your continued use of our Services after we issue such notice indicates your acceptance of the changes. If you do not accept the updated Terms, you must cease using our services.
Severability
If any section or portion of a provision of these Terms is determined to be unlawful, void, or unenforceable, that provision or part of the provision shall be deemed severable from these Terms and shall not affect the validity and enforceability of the other terms.
Miscellaneous INTΞGRITY’s omission to assert or enforce any right or term of these Terms is not a waiver of such right or provision. These Terms and the terms and policies specified in the Other Terms and Policies that May Apply to You Section constitute the complete agreement between the parties pertaining to the subject matter hereof and supersede all prior agreements, statements, and understandings between the parties. The section headings in these Terms are for convenience only and have no legal or contractual significance. The use of the word "including" shall be taken to mean "including without limitation." Unless otherwise specified, these Terms are intended solely for the benefit of the parties and are not intended to confer third-party beneficiary rights on any other person or entity. You consent to the use of electronic means for our communications and transactions.
Alex Mathers
2 years ago
How to Produce Enough for People to Not Neglect You
Internet's fantastic, right?
We've never had a better way to share our creativity.
I can now draw on my iPad and tweet or Instagram it to thousands. I may get some likes.
With such a great, free tool, you're not alone.
Millions more bright-eyed artists are sharing their work online.
The issue is getting innovative work noticed, not sharing it.
In a world where creators want attention, attention is valuable.
We build for attention.
Attention helps us establish a following, make money, get notoriety, and make a difference.
Most of us require attention to stay sane while creating wonderful things.
I know how hard it is to work hard and receive little views.
How do we receive more attention, more often, in a sea of talent?
Advertising and celebrity endorsements are options. These may work temporarily.
To attract true, organic, and long-term attention, you must create in high quality, high volume, and consistency.
Adapting Steve Martin's Be so amazing, they can't ignore you (with a mention to Dan Norris in his great book Create or Hate for the reminder)
Create a lot.
Eventually, your effort will gain traction.
Traction shows your work's influence.
Traction is when your product sells more. Traction is exponential user growth. Your work is shared more.
No matter how good your work is, it will always have minimal impact on the world.
Your work can eventually dent or puncture. Daily, people work to dent.
To achieve this tipping point, you must consistently produce exceptional work.
Expect traction after hundreds of outputs.
Dilbert creator Scott Adams says repetition persuades. If you don't stop, you can persuade practically anyone with anything.
Volume lends believability. So make more.
I worked as an illustrator for at least a year and a half without any recognition. After 150 illustrations on iStockphoto, my work started selling.
With 350 illustrations on iStock, I started getting decent client commissions.
Producing often will improve your craft and draw attention.
It's the only way to succeed. More creation means better results and greater attention.
Austin Kleon says you can improve your skill in relative anonymity before you become famous. Before obtaining traction, generate a lot and become excellent.
Most artists, even excellent ones, don't create consistently enough to get traction.
It may hurt. For makers who don't love and flow with their work, it's extremely difficult.
Your work must bring you to life.
To generate so much that others can't ignore you, decide what you'll accomplish every day (or most days).
Commit and be patient.
Prepare for zero-traction.
Anticipating this will help you persevere and create.
My online guru Grant Cardone says: Anything worth doing is worth doing every day.
Do.