More on Economics & Investing

Jan-Patrick Barnert
3 years ago
Wall Street's Bear Market May Stick Around
If history is any guide, this bear market might be long and severe.
This is the S&P 500 Index's fourth such incident in 20 years. The last bear market of 2020 was a "shock trade" caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, although earlier ones in 2000 and 2008 took longer to bottom out and recover.
Peter Garnry, head of equities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, compares the current selloff to the dotcom bust of 2000 and the 1973-1974 bear market marked by soaring oil prices connected to an OPEC oil embargo. He blamed high tech valuations and the commodity crises.
"This drop might stretch over a year and reach 35%," Garnry wrote.
Here are six bear market charts.
Time/depth
The S&P 500 Index plummeted 51% between 2000 and 2002 and 58% during the global financial crisis; it took more than 1,000 trading days to recover. The former took 638 days to reach a bottom, while the latter took 352 days, suggesting the present selloff is young.
Valuations
Before the tech bubble burst in 2000, valuations were high. The S&P 500's forward P/E was 25 times then. Before the market fell this year, ahead values were near 24. Before the global financial crisis, stocks were relatively inexpensive, but valuations dropped more than 40%, compared to less than 30% now.
Earnings
Every stock crash, especially earlier bear markets, returned stocks to fundamentals. The S&P 500 decouples from earnings trends but eventually recouples.
Support
Central banks won't support equity investors just now. The end of massive monetary easing will terminate a two-year bull run that was among the strongest ever, and equities may struggle without cheap money. After years of "don't fight the Fed," investors must embrace a new strategy.
Bear Haunting Bear
If the past is any indication, rising government bond yields are bad news. After the financial crisis, skyrocketing rates and a falling euro pushed European stock markets back into bear territory in 2011.
Inflation/rates
The current monetary policy climate differs from past bear markets. This is the first time in a while that markets face significant inflation and rising rates.
This post is a summary. Read full article here

Desiree Peralta
2 years ago
How to Use the 2023 Recession to Grow Your Wealth Exponentially
This season's three best money moves.
“Millionaires are made in recessions.” — Time Capital
We're in a serious downturn, whether or not we're in a recession.
97% of business owners are decreasing costs by more than 10%, and all markets are down 30%.
If you know what you're doing and analyze the markets correctly, this is your chance to become a millionaire.
In any recession, there are always excellent possibilities to seize. Real estate, crypto, stocks, enterprises, etc.
What you do with your money could influence your future riches.
This article analyzes the three key markets, their circumstances for 2023, and how to profit from them.
Ways to make money on the stock market.
If you're conservative like me, you should invest in an index fund. Most of these funds are down 10-30% of ATH:
In earlier recessions, most money index funds lost 20%. After this downturn, they grew and passed the ATH in subsequent months.
Now is the greatest moment to invest in index funds to grow your money in a low-risk approach and make 20%.
If you want to be risky but wise, pick companies that will get better next year but are struggling now.
Even while we can't be 100% confident of a company's future performance, we know some are strong and will have a fantastic year.
Microsoft (down 22%), JPMorgan Chase (15.6%), Amazon (45%), and Disney (33.8%).
These firms give dividends, so you can earn passively while you wait.
So I consider that a good strategy to make wealth in the current stock market is to create two portfolios: one based on index funds to earn 10% to 20% profit when the corrections end, and the other based on individual stocks of popular and strong companies to earn 20%-30% return and dividends while you wait.
How to profit from the downturn in the real estate industry.
With rising mortgage rates, it's the worst moment to buy a home if you don't want to be eaten by banks. In the U.S., interest rates are double what they were three years ago, so buying now looks foolish.
Due to these rates, property prices are falling, but that won't last long since individuals will take advantage.
According to historical data, now is the ideal moment to buy a house for the next five years and perhaps forever.
If you can buy a house, do it. You can refinance the interest at a lower rate with acceptable credit, but not the house price.
Take advantage of the housing market prices now because you won't find a decent deal when rates normalize.
How to profit from the cryptocurrency market.
This is the riskiest market to tackle right now, but it could offer the most opportunities if done appropriately.
The most powerful cryptocurrencies are down more than 60% from last year: $68,990 for BTC and $4,865 for ETH.
If you focus on those two coins, you can make 30%-60% without waiting for them to return to their ATH, and they're low enough to be a solid investment.
I don't encourage trying other altcoins because the crypto market is in crisis and you can lose everything if you're greedy.
Still, the main Cryptos are a good investment provided you store them in an external wallet and follow financial gurus' security advice.
Last thoughts
We can't anticipate a recession until it ends. We can't forecast a market or asset's lowest point, therefore waiting makes little sense.
If you want to develop your wealth, assess the money prospects on all the marketplaces and initiate long-term trades.
Many millionaires are made during recessions because they don't fear negative figures and use them to scale their money.

Quant Galore
3 years ago
I created BAW-IV Trading because I was short on money.
More retail traders means faster, more sophisticated, and more successful methods.
Tech specifications
Only requires a laptop and an internet connection.
We'll use OpenBB's research platform for data/analysis.
Pricing and execution on Options-Quant
Background
You don't need to know the arithmetic details to use this method.
Black-Scholes is a popular option pricing model. It's best for pricing European options. European options are only exercisable at expiration, unlike American options. American options are always exercisable.
American options carry a premium to cover for the risk of early exercise. The Black-Scholes model doesn't account for this premium, hence it can't price genuine, traded American options.
Barone-Adesi-Whaley (BAW) model. BAW modifies Black-Scholes. It accounts for exercise risk premium and stock dividends. It adds the option's early exercise value to the Black-Scholes value.
The trader need not know the formulaic derivations of this model.
https://ir.nctu.edu.tw/bitstream/11536/14182/1/000264318900005.pdf
Strategy
This strategy targets implied volatility. First, we'll locate liquid options that expire within 30 days and have minimal implied volatility.
After selecting the option that meets the requirements, we price it to get the BAW implied volatility (we choose BAW because it's a more accurate Black-Scholes model). If estimated implied volatility is larger than market volatility, we'll capture the spread.
(Calculated IV — Market IV) = (Profit)
Some approaches to target implied volatility are pricey and inaccessible to individual investors. The best and most cost-effective alternative is to acquire a straddle and delta hedge. This may sound terrifying and pricey, but as shown below, it's much less so.
The Trade
First, we want to find our ideal option, so we use OpenBB terminal to screen for options that:
Have an IV at least 5% lower than the 20-day historical IV
Are no more than 5% out-of-the-money
Expire in less than 30 days
We query:
stocks/options/screen/set low_IV/scr --export Output.csv
This uses the screener function to screen for options that satisfy the above criteria, which we specify in the low IV preset (more on custom presets here). It then saves the matching results to a csv(Excel) file for viewing and analysis.
Stick to liquid names like SPY, AAPL, and QQQ since getting out of a position is just as crucial as getting in. Smaller, illiquid names have higher inefficiencies, which could restrict total profits.
We calculate IV using the BAWbisection model (the bisection is a method of calculating IV, more can be found here.) We price the IV first.
According to the BAW model, implied volatility at this level should be priced at 26.90%. When re-pricing the put, IV is 24.34%, up 3%.
Now it's evident. We must purchase the straddle (long the call and long the put) assuming the computed implied volatility is more appropriate and efficient than the market's. We just want to speculate on volatility, not price fluctuations, thus we delta hedge.
The Fun Starts
We buy both options for $7.65. (x100 multiplier). Initial delta is 2. For every dollar the stock price swings up or down, our position value moves $2.
We want delta to be 0 to avoid price vulnerability. A delta of 0 suggests our position's value won't change from underlying price changes. Being delta-hedged allows us to profit/lose from implied volatility. Shorting 2 shares makes us delta-neutral.
That's delta hedging. (Share price * shares traded) = $330.7 to become delta-neutral. You may have noted that delta is not truly 0.00. This is common since delta-hedging means getting as near to 0 as feasible, since it is rare for deltas to align at 0.00.
Now we're vulnerable to changes in Vega (and Gamma, but given we're dynamically hedging, it's not a big risk), or implied volatility. We wanted to gamble that the position's IV would climb by at least 2%, so we'll maintain it delta-hedged and watch IV.
Because the underlying moves continually, the option's delta moves continuously. A trader can short/long 5 AAPL shares at most. Paper trading lets you practice delta-hedging. Being quick-footed will help with this tactic.
Profit-Closing
As expected, implied volatility rose. By 10 minutes before market closure, the call's implied vol rose to 27% and the put's to 24%. This allowed us to sell the call for $4.95 and the put for $4.35, creating a profit of $165.
You may pull historical data to see how this trade performed. Note the implied volatility and pricing in the final options chain for August 5, 2022 (the position date).
Final Thoughts
Congratulations, that was a doozy. To reiterate, we identified tickers prone to increased implied volatility by screening OpenBB's low IV setting. We double-checked the IV by plugging the price into Options-BAW Quant's model. When volatility was off, we bought a straddle and delta-hedged it. Finally, implied volatility returned to a normal level, and we profited on the spread.
The retail trading space is very quickly catching up to that of institutions. Commissions and fees used to kill this method, but now they cost less than $5. Watching momentum, technical analysis, and now quantitative strategies evolve is intriguing.
I'm not linked with these sites and receive no financial benefit from my writing.
Tell me how your experience goes and how I helped; I love success tales.
You might also like

John Rampton
3 years ago
Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters
Ready to quit full-time? No worries.
Baby Boomer retirement has accelerated since COVID-19 began. In 2020, 29 million boomers retire. Over 3 million more than in 2019. 75 million Baby Boomers will retire by 2030.
First, quit your work to enjoy retirement. Leave a professional legacy. Your retirement will start well. It all starts with a retirement letter.
Retirement Letter
Retirement letters are formal resignation letters. Different from other resignation letters, these don't tell your employer you're leaving. Instead, you're quitting.
Since you're not departing over grievances or for a better position or higher income, you may usually terminate the relationship amicably. Consulting opportunities are possible.
Thank your employer for their support and give them transition information.
Resignation letters aren't merely a formality. This method handles wages, insurance, and retirement benefits.
Retirement letters often accompany verbal notices to managers. Schedule a meeting before submitting your retirement letter to discuss your plans. The letter will be stored alongside your start date, salary, and benefits in your employee file.
Retirement is typically well-planned. Employers want 6-12 months' notice.
Summary
Guidelines for Giving Retirement Notice
Components of a Successful Retirement Letter
Template for Retirement Letter
Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters
First Example of Retirement Letter
Second Example of Retirement Letter
Third Example of Retirement Letter
Fourth Example of Retirement Letter
Fifth Example of Retirement Letter
Sixth Example of Retirement Letter
Seventh Example of Retirement Letter
Eighth Example of Retirement Letter
Ninth Example of Retirement Letter
Tenth Example of Retirement Letter
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is a letter of retirement?
2. Why should you include a letter of retirement?
3. What information ought to be in your retirement letter?
4. Must I provide notice?
5. What is the ideal retirement age?
Guidelines for Giving Retirement Notice
While starting a new phase, you're also leaving a job you were qualified for. You have years of experience. So, it may not be easy to fill a retirement-related vacancy.
Talk to your boss in person before sending a letter. Notice is always appreciated. Properly announcing your retirement helps you and your organization transition.
How to announce retirement:
Learn about the retirement perks and policies offered by the company. The first step in figuring out whether you're eligible for retirement benefits is to research your company's retirement policy.
Don't depart without providing adequate notice. You should give the business plenty of time to replace you if you want to retire in a few months.
Help the transition by offering aid. You could be a useful resource if your replacement needs training.
Contact the appropriate parties. The original copy should go to your boss. Give a copy to HR because they will manage your 401(k), pension, and health insurance.
Investigate the option of working as a consultant or part-time. If you desire, you can continue doing some limited work for the business.
Be nice to others. Describe your achievements and appreciation. Additionally, express your gratitude for giving you the chance to work with such excellent coworkers.
Make a plan for your future move. Simply updating your employer on your goals will help you maintain a good working relationship.
Use a formal letter or email to formalize your plans. The initial step is to speak with your supervisor and HR in person, but you must also give written notice.
Components of a Successful Retirement Letter
To write a good retirement letter, keep in mind the following:
A formal salutation. Here, the voice should be deliberate, succinct, and authoritative.
Be specific about your intentions. The key idea of your retirement letter is resignation. Your decision to depart at this time should be reflected in your letter. Remember that your intention must be clear-cut.
Your deadline. This information must be in resignation letters. Laws and corporate policies may both stipulate a minimum amount of notice.
A kind voice. Your retirement letter shouldn't contain any resentments, insults, or other unpleasantness. Your letter should be a model of professionalism and grace. A straightforward thank you is a terrific approach to accomplish that.
Your ultimate goal. Chaos may start to happen as soon as you turn in your resignation letter. Your position will need to be filled. Additionally, you will have to perform your obligations up until a successor is found. Your availability during the interim period should be stated in your resignation letter.
Give us a way to reach you. Even if you aren't consulting, your company will probably get in touch with you at some point. They might send you tax documents and details on perks. By giving your contact information, you can make this process easier.
Template for Retirement Letter
Identify
Title you held
Address
Supervisor's name
Supervisor’s position
Company name
HQ address
Date
[SUPERVISOR],
1.
Inform that you're retiring. Include your last day worked.
2.
Employer thanks. Mention what you're thankful for. Describe your accomplishments and successes.
3.
Helping moves things ahead. Plan your retirement. Mention your consultancy interest.
Sincerely,
[Signature]
First and last name
Phone number
Personal Email
Ideas for Samples of Retirement Letters
First Example of Retirement Letter
Martin D. Carey
123 Fleming St
Bloomfield, New Jersey 07003
(555) 555-1234
June 6th, 2022
Willie E. Coyote
President
Acme Co
321 Anvil Ave
Fairfield, New Jersey 07004
Dear Mr. Coyote,
This letter notifies Acme Co. of my retirement on August 31, 2022.
There has been no other organization that has given me that sense of belonging and purpose.
My fifteen years at the helm of the Structural Design Division have given me a strong sense of purpose. I’ve been fortunate to have your support, and I’ll be always grateful for the opportunity you offered me.
I had a difficult time making this decision. As a result of finding a small property in Arizona where we will be able to spend our remaining days together, my wife and I have decided to officially retire.
In spite of my regret at being unable to contribute to the firm we’ve built, I believe it is wise to move on.
My heart will always belong to Acme Co. Thank you for the opportunity and best of luck in the years to come.
Sincerely,
Martin D. Carey
Second Example of Retirement Letter
Gustavo Fring
Los Pollas Hermanos
12000–12100 Coors Rd SW,
Albuquerque, New Mexico 87045
Dear Mr. Fring,
I write this letter to announce my formal retirement from Los Pollas Hermanos as manager, effective October 15.
As an employee at Los Pollas Hermanos, I appreciate all the great opportunities you have given me. It has been a pleasure to work with and learn from my colleagues for the past 10 years, and I am looking forward to my next challenge.
If there is anything I can do to assist during this time, please let me know.
Sincerely,
Linda T. Crespo
Third Example of Retirement Letter
William M. Arviso
4387 Parkview Drive
Tustin, CA 92680
May 2, 2023
Tony Stark
Owner
Stark Industries
200 Industrial Avenue
Long Beach, CA 90803
Dear Tony:
I’m writing to inform you that my final day of work at Stark Industries will be May14, 2023. When that time comes, I intend to retire.
As I embark on this new chapter in my life, I would like to thank you and the entire Stark Industries team for providing me with so many opportunities. You have all been a pleasure to work with and I will miss you all when I retire.
I am glad to assist you with the transition in any way I can to ensure your new hire has a seamless experience. All ongoing projects will be completed until my retirement date, and all key information will be handed over to the team.
Once again, thank you for the opportunity to be part of the Stark Industries team. All the best to you and the team in the days to come.
Please do not hesitate to contact me if you require any additional information. In order to finalize my retirement plans, I’ll meet with HR and can provide any details that may be necessary.
Sincerely,
(Signature)
William M. Arviso
Fourth Example of Retirement Letter
Garcia, Barbara
First Street, 5432
New York City, NY 10001
(1234) (555) 123–1234
1 October 2022
Gunther
Owner
Central Perk
199 Lafayette St.
New York City, NY 10001
Mr. Gunther,
The day has finally arrived. As I never imagined, I will be formally retiring from Central Perk on November 1st, 2022.
Considering how satisfied I am with my current position, this may surprise you. It would be best if I retired now since my health has deteriorated, so I think this is a good time to do so.
There is no doubt that the past two decades have been wonderful. Over the years, I have seen a small coffee shop grow into one of the city’s top destinations.
It will be hard for me to leave this firm without wondering what more success we could have achieved. But I’m confident that you and the rest of the Central Perk team will achieve great things.
My family and I will never forget what you’ve done for us, and I am grateful for the chance you’ve given me. My house is always open to you.
Sincerely Yours
Garcia, Barbara
Fifth Example of Retirement Letter
Pat Williams
618 Spooky Place
Monstropolis, 23221
123–555–0031
pwilliams@email.com
Feb. 16, 2022
Mike Wazowski
Co-CEO
Monters, Inc.
324 Scare Road
Monstropolis
Dear Mr. Wazowski,
As a formal notice of my upcoming retirement, I am submitting this letter. I will be leaving Monters, Inc. on April 13.
These past 10 years as a marketing associate have provided me with many opportunities. Since we started our company a decade ago, we have seen the face of harnessing screams change dramatically into harnessing laughter. During my time working with this dynamic marketing team, I learned a lot about customer behavior and marketing strategies. Working closely with some of our long-standing clients, such as Boo, was a particular pleasure.
I would be happy to assist with the transition following my retirement. It would be my pleasure to assist in the hiring or training of my replacement. In order to spend more time with my family, I will also be able to offer part-time consulting services.
After I retire, I plan to cash out the eight unused vacation days I’ve accumulated and take my pension as a lump sum.
Thank you for the opportunity to work with Monters, Inc. In the years to come, I wish you all the best!
Sincerely,
Paul Williams
Sixth Example of Retirement Letter
Dear Micheal,
As In my tenure at Dunder Mifflin Paper Company, I have given everything I had. It has been an honor to work here. But I have decided to move on to new challenges and retire from my position — mainly bears, beets, and Battlestar Galactia.
I appreciate the opportunity to work here and learn so much. During my time at this company, I will always remember the good times and memories we shared. Wishing you all the best in the future.
Sincerely,
Dwight K. Shrute
Your signature
May 16
Seventh Example of Retirement Letter
Greetings, Bill
I am announcing my retirement from Initech, effective March 15, 2023.
Over the course of my career here, I’ve had the privilege of working with so many talented and inspiring people.
In 1999, when I began working as a customer service representative, we were a small organization located in a remote office park.
The fact that we now occupy a floor of the Main Street office building with over 150 employees continues to amaze me.
I am looking forward to spending more time with family and traveling the country in our RV. Although I will be sad to leave.
Please let me know if there are any extra steps I can take to facilitate this transfer.
Sincerely,
Frankin, RenitaEighth Example of Retirement Letter
Height Example of Retirement Letter
Bruce,
Please accept my resignation from Wayne Enterprises as Marketing Communications Director. My last day will be August 1, 2022.
The decision to retire has been made after much deliberation. Now that I have worked in the field for forty years, I believe it is a good time to begin completing my bucket list.
It was not easy for me to decide to leave the company. Having worked at Wayne Enterprises has been rewarding both professionally and personally. There are still a lot of memories associated with my first day as a college intern.
My intention was not to remain with such an innovative company, as you know. I was able to see the big picture with your help, however. Today, we are a force that is recognized both nationally and internationally.
In addition to your guidance, the bold, visionary leadership of our company contributed to the growth of our company.
My departure from the company coincides with a particularly hectic time. Despite my best efforts, I am unable to postpone my exit.
My position would be well served by an internal solution. I have a more than qualified marketing manager in Caroline Crown. It would be a pleasure to speak with you about this.
In case I can be of assistance during the switchover, please let me know. Contact us at (555)555–5555. As part of my responsibilities, I am responsible for making sure all work is completed to Wayne Enterprise’s stringent requirements. Having the opportunity to work with you has been a pleasure. I wish you continued success with your thriving business.
Sincerely,
Cash, Cole
Marketing/Communications
Ninth Example of Retirement Letter
Norman, Jamie
2366 Hanover Street
Whitestone, NY 11357
555–555–5555
15 October 2022
Mr. Lippman
Head of Pendant Publishing
600 Madison Ave.
New York, New York
Respected Mr. Lippman,
Please accept my resignation effective November 1, 2022.
Over the course of my ten years at Pendant Publishing, I’ve had a great deal of fun and I’m quite grateful for all the assistance I’ve received.
It was a pleasure to wake up and go to work every day because of our outstanding corporate culture and the opportunities for promotion and professional advancement available to me.
While I am excited about retiring, I am going to miss being part of our team. It’s my hope that I’ll be able to maintain the friendships I’ve formed here for a long time to come.
In case I can be of assistance prior to or following my departure, please let me know. If I can assist in any way to ensure a smooth transfer to my successor, I would be delighted to do so.
Sincerely,
Signed (hard copy letter)
Norman, Jamie
Tenth Example of Retirement Letter
17 January 2023
Greg S. Jackson
Cyberdyne Systems
18144 El Camino Real,
Sunnyvale, CA
Respected Mrs. Duncan,
I am writing to inform you that I will be resigning from Cyberdyne Systems as of March 1, 2023. I’m grateful to have had this opportunity, and it was a difficult decision to make.
My development as a programmer and as a more seasoned member of the organization has been greatly assisted by your coaching.
I have been proud of Cyberdyne Systems’ ethics and success throughout my 25 years at the company. Starting as a mailroom clerk and currently serving as head programmer.
The portfolios of our clients have always been handled with the greatest care by my colleagues. It is our employees and services that have made Cyberdyne Systems the success it is today.
During my tenure as head of my division, I’ve increased our overall productivity by 800 percent, and I expect that trend to continue after I retire.
In light of the fact that the process of replacing me may take some time, I would like to offer my assistance in any way I can.
The greatest contender for this job is Troy Ledford, my current assistant.
Also, before I leave, I would be willing to teach any partners how to use the programmer I developed to track and manage the development of Skynet.
Over the next few months, I’ll be enjoying vacations with my wife as well as my granddaughter moving to college.
If Cyberdyne Systems has any openings for consultants, please let me know. It has been a pleasure working with you over the last 25 years. I appreciate your concern and care.
Sincerely,
Greg S, Jackson
Questions and Answers
1. What is a letter of retirement?
Retirement letters tell your supervisor you're retiring. This informs your employer that you're departing, like a letter. A resignation letter also requests retirement benefits.
Supervisors frequently receive retirement letters and verbal resignations. Before submitting your retirement letter, meet to discuss your plans. This letter will be filed with your start date, salary, and benefits.
2. Why should you include a letter of retirement?
Your retirement letter should explain why you're leaving. When you quit, your manager and HR department usually know. Regardless, a retirement letter might help you leave on a positive tone. It ensures they have the necessary papers.
In your retirement letter, you tell the firm your plans so they can find your replacement. You may need to stay in touch with your company after sending your retirement letter until a successor is identified.
3. What information ought to be in your retirement letter?
Format it like an official letter. Include your retirement plans and retirement-specific statistics. Date may be most essential.
In some circumstances, benefits depend on when you resign and retire. A date on the letter helps HR or senior management verify when you gave notice and how long.
In addition to your usual salutation, address your letter to your manager or supervisor.
The letter's body should include your retirement date and transition arrangements. Tell them whether you plan to help with the transition or train a new employee. You may have a three-month time limit.
Tell your employer your job title, how long you've worked there, and your biggest successes. Personalize your letter by expressing gratitude for your career and outlining your retirement intentions. Finally, include your contact info.
4. Must I provide notice?
Two-week notice isn't required. Your company may require it. Some state laws contain exceptions.
Check your contract, company handbook, or HR to determine your retirement notice. Resigning may change the policy.
Regardless of your company's policy, notification is standard. Entry-level or junior jobs can be let go so the corporation can replace them.
Middle managers, high-level personnel, and specialists may take months to replace. Two weeks' notice is a courtesy. Start planning months ahead.
You can finish all jobs at that period. Prepare transition documents for coworkers and your replacement.
5. What is the ideal retirement age?
Depends on finances, state, and retirement plan. The average American retires at 62. The average retirement age is 66, according to Gallup's 2021 Economy and Personal Finance Survey.
Remember:
Before the age of 59 1/2, withdrawals from pre-tax retirement accounts, such as 401(k)s and IRAs, are subject to a penalty.
Benefits from Social Security can be accessed as early as age 62.
Medicare isn't available to you till you're 65,
Depending on the year of your birth, your Full Retirement Age (FRA) will be between 66 and 67 years old.
If you haven't taken them already, your Social Security benefits increase by 8% annually between ages 6 and 77.

Onchain Wizard
3 years ago
Three Arrows Capital & Celsius Updates
I read 1k+ page 3AC liquidation documentation so you don't have to. Also sharing revised Celsius recovery plans.
3AC's liquidation documents:
Someone disclosed 3AC liquidation records in the BVI courts recently. I'll discuss the leak's timeline and other highlights.
Three Arrows Capital began trading traditional currencies in emerging markets in 2012. They switched to equities and crypto, then purely crypto in 2018.
By 2020, the firm had $703mm in net assets and $1.8bn in loans (these guys really like debt).
The firm's net assets under control reached $3bn in April 2022, according to the filings. 3AC had $600mm of LUNA/UST exposure before May 9th 2022, which put them over.
LUNA and UST go to zero quickly (I wrote about the mechanics of the blowup here). Kyle Davies, 3AC co-founder, told Blockchain.com on May 13 that they have $2.4bn in assets and $2.3bn NAV vs. $2bn in borrowings. As BTC and ETH plunged 33% and 50%, the company became insolvent by mid-2022.
3AC sent $32mm to Tai Ping Shen, a Cayman Islands business owned by Su Zhu and Davies' partner, Kelly Kaili Chen (who knows what is going on here).
3AC had borrowed over $3.5bn in notional principle, with Genesis ($2.4bn) and Voyager ($650mm) having the most exposure.
Genesis demanded $355mm in further collateral in June.
Deribit (another 3AC investment) called for $80 million in mid-June.
Even in mid-June, the corporation was trying to borrow more money to stay afloat. They approached Genesis for another $125mm loan (to pay another lender) and HODLnauts for BTC & ETH loans.
Pretty crazy. 3AC founders used borrowed money to buy a $50 million boat, according to the leak.
Su requesting for $5m + Chen Kaili Kelly asserting they loaned $65m unsecured to 3AC are identified as creditors.
Celsius:
This bankruptcy presentation shows the Celsius breakdown from March to July 14, 2022. From $22bn to $4bn, crypto assets plummeted from $14.6bn to $1.8bn (ouch). $16.5bn in user liabilities dropped to $4.72bn.
In my recent post, I examined if "forced selling" is over, with Celsius' crypto assets being a major overhang. In this presentation, it looks that Chapter 11 will provide clients the opportunity to accept cash at a discount or remain long crypto. Provided that a fresh source of money is unlikely to enter the Celsius situation, cash at a discount or crypto given to customers will likely remain a near-term market risk - cash at a discount will likely come from selling crypto assets, while customers who receive crypto could sell at any time. I'll share any Celsius updates I find.
Conclusion
Only Celsius and the Mt Gox BTC unlock remain as forced selling catalysts. While everything went through a "relief" pump, with ETH up 75% from the bottom and numerous alts multiples higher, there are still macro dangers to equities + risk assets. There's a lot of wealth waiting to be deployed in crypto ($153bn in stables), but fund managers are risk apprehensive (lower than 2008 levels).
We're hopefully over crypto's "bottom," with peak anxiety and forced selling behind us, but we may chop around.
To see the full article, click here.

Dr. Linda Dahl
3 years ago
We eat corn in almost everything. Is It Important?
Corn Kid got viral on TikTok after being interviewed by Recess Therapy. Tariq, called the Corn Kid, ate a buttery ear of corn in the video. He's corn crazy. He thinks everyone just has to try it. It turns out, whether we know it or not, we already have.
Corn is a fruit, veggie, and grain. It's the second-most-grown crop. Corn makes up 36% of U.S. exports. In the U.S., it's easy to grow and provides high yields, as proven by the vast corn belt spanning the Midwest, Great Plains, and Texas panhandle. Since 1950, the corn crop has doubled to 10 billion bushels.
You say, "Fine." We shouldn't just grow because we can. Why so much corn? What's this corn for?
Why is practical and political. Michael Pollan's The Omnivore's Dilemma has the full narrative. Early 1970s food costs increased. Nixon subsidized maize to feed the public. Monsanto genetically engineered corn seeds to make them hardier, and soon there was plenty of corn. Everyone ate. Woot! Too much corn followed. The powers-that-be had to decide what to do with leftover corn-on-the-cob.
They are fortunate that corn has a wide range of uses.
First, the edible variants. I divide corn into obvious and stealth.
Obvious corn includes popcorn, canned corn, and corn on the cob. This form isn't always digested and often comes out as entire, polka-dotting poop. Cornmeal can be ground to make cornbread, polenta, and corn tortillas. Corn provides antioxidants, minerals, and vitamins in moderation. Most synthetic Vitamin C comes from GMO maize.
Corn oil, corn starch, dextrose (a sugar), and high-fructose corn syrup are often overlooked. They're stealth corn because they sneak into practically everything. Corn oil is used for frying, baking, and in potato chips, mayonnaise, margarine, and salad dressing. Baby food, bread, cakes, antibiotics, canned vegetables, beverages, and even dairy and animal products include corn starch. Dextrose appears in almost all prepared foods, excluding those with high-fructose corn syrup. HFCS isn't as easily digested as sucrose (from cane sugar). It can also cause other ailments, which we'll discuss later.
Most foods contain corn. It's fed to almost all food animals. 96% of U.S. animal feed is corn. 39% of U.S. corn is fed to livestock. But animals prefer other foods. Omnivore chickens prefer insects, worms, grains, and grasses. Captive cows are fed a total mixed ration, which contains corn. These animals' products, like eggs and milk, are also corn-fed.
There are numerous non-edible by-products of corn that are employed in the production of items like:
fuel-grade ethanol
plastics
batteries
cosmetics
meds/vitamins binder
carpets, fabrics
glutathione
crayons
Paint/glue
How does corn influence you? Consider quick food for dinner. You order a cheeseburger, fries, and big Coke at the counter (or drive-through in the suburbs). You tell yourself, "No corn." All that contains corn. Deconstruct:
Cows fed corn produce meat and cheese. Meat and cheese were bonded with corn syrup and starch (same). The bun (corn flour and dextrose) and fries were fried in maize oil. High fructose corn syrup sweetens the drink and helps make the cup and straw.
Just about everything contains corn. Then what? A cornspiracy, perhaps? Is eating too much maize an issue, or should we strive to stay away from it whenever possible?
As I've said, eating some maize can be healthy. 92% of U.S. corn is genetically modified, according to the Center for Food Safety. The adjustments are expected to boost corn yields. Some sweet corn is genetically modified to produce its own insecticide, a protein deadly to insects made by Bacillus thuringiensis. It's safe to eat in sweet corn. Concerns exist about feeding agricultural animals so much maize, modified or not.
High fructose corn syrup should be consumed in moderation. Fructose, a sugar, isn't easily metabolized. Fructose causes diabetes, fatty liver, obesity, and heart disease. It causes inflammation, which might aggravate gout. Candy, packaged sweets, soda, fast food, juice drinks, ice cream, ice cream topping syrups, sauces & condiments, jams, bread, crackers, and pancake syrup contain the most high fructose corn syrup. Everyday foods with little nutrients. Check labels and choose cane sugar or sucrose-sweetened goods. Or, eat corn like the Corn Kid.
