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Stephen Moore

Stephen Moore

3 years ago

A Meta-Reversal: Zuckerberg's $71 Billion Loss 

More on Technology

Gajus Kuizinas

Gajus Kuizinas

3 years ago

How a few lines of code were able to eliminate a few million queries from the database

I was entering tens of millions of records per hour when I first published Slonik PostgreSQL client for Node.js. The data being entered was usually flat, making it straightforward to use INSERT INTO ... SELECT * FROM unnset() pattern. I advocated the unnest approach for inserting rows in groups (that was part I).

Bulk inserting nested data into the database

However, today I’ve found a better way: jsonb_to_recordset.

jsonb_to_recordset expands the top-level JSON array of objects to a set of rows having the composite type defined by an AS clause.

jsonb_to_recordset allows us to query and insert records from arbitrary JSON, like unnest. Since we're giving JSON to PostgreSQL instead of unnest, the final format is more expressive and powerful.

SELECT *
FROM json_to_recordset('[{"name":"John","tags":["foo","bar"]},{"name":"Jane","tags":["baz"]}]')
AS t1(name text, tags text[]);
 name |   tags
------+-----------
 John | {foo,bar}
 Jane | {baz}
(2 rows)

Let’s demonstrate how you would use it to insert data.

Inserting data using json_to_recordset

Say you need to insert a list of people with attributes into the database.

const persons = [
  {
    name: 'John',
    tags: ['foo', 'bar']
  },
  {
    name: 'Jane',
    tags: ['baz']
  }
];

You may be tempted to traverse through the array and insert each record separately, e.g.

for (const person of persons) {
  await pool.query(sql`
    INSERT INTO person (name, tags)
    VALUES (
      ${person.name},
      ${sql.array(person.tags, 'text[]')}
    )
  `);
}

It's easier to read and grasp when working with a few records. If you're like me and troubleshoot a 2M+ insert query per day, batching inserts may be beneficial.

What prompted the search for better alternatives.

Inserting using unnest pattern might look like this:

await pool.query(sql`
  INSERT INTO public.person (name, tags)
  SELECT t1.name, t1.tags::text[]
  FROM unnest(
    ${sql.array(['John', 'Jane'], 'text')},
    ${sql.array(['{foo,bar}', '{baz}'], 'text')}
  ) AS t1.(name, tags);
`);

You must convert arrays into PostgreSQL array strings and provide them as text arguments, which is unsightly. Iterating the array to create slices for each column is likewise unattractive.

However, with jsonb_to_recordset, we can:

await pool.query(sql`
  INSERT INTO person (name, tags)
  SELECT *
  FROM jsonb_to_recordset(${sql.jsonb(persons)}) AS t(name text, tags text[])
`);

In contrast to the unnest approach, using jsonb_to_recordset we can easily insert complex nested data structures, and we can pass the original JSON document to the query without needing to manipulate it.

In terms of performance they are also exactly the same. As such, my current recommendation is to prefer jsonb_to_recordset whenever inserting lots of rows or nested data structures.

Enrique Dans

Enrique Dans

3 years ago

You may not know about The Merge, yet it could change society

IMAGE: Ethereum.org

Ethereum is the second-largest cryptocurrency. The Merge, a mid-September event that will convert Ethereum's consensus process from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake if all goes according to plan, will be a game changer.

Why is Ethereum ditching proof-of-work? Because it can. We're talking about a fully functioning, open-source ecosystem with a capacity for evolution that other cryptocurrencies lack, a change that would allow it to scale up its performance from 15 transactions per second to 100,000 as its blockchain is used for more and more things. It would reduce its energy consumption by 99.95%. Vitalik Buterin, the system's founder, would play a less active role due to decentralization, and miners, who validated transactions through proof of work, would be far less important.

Why has this conversion taken so long and been so cautious? Because it involves modifying a core process while it's running to boost its performance. It requires running the new mechanism in test chains on an ever-increasing scale, assessing participant reactions, and checking for issues or restrictions. The last big test was in early June and was successful. All that's left is to converge the mechanism with the Ethereum blockchain to conclude the switch.

What's stopping Bitcoin, the leader in market capitalization and the cryptocurrency that began blockchain's appeal, from doing the same? Satoshi Nakamoto, whoever he or she is, departed from public life long ago, therefore there's no community leadership. Changing it takes a level of consensus that is impossible to achieve without strong leadership, which is why Bitcoin's evolution has been sluggish and conservative, with few modifications.

Secondly, The Merge will balance the consensus mechanism (proof-of-work or proof-of-stake) and the system decentralization or centralization. Proof-of-work prevents double-spending, thus validators must buy hardware. The system works, but it requires a lot of electricity and, as it scales up, tends to re-centralize as validators acquire more hardware and the entire network activity gets focused in a few nodes. Larger operations save more money, which increases profitability and market share. This evolution runs opposed to the concept of decentralization, and some anticipate that any system that uses proof of work as a consensus mechanism will evolve towards centralization, with fewer large firms able to invest in efficient network nodes.

Yet radical bitcoin enthusiasts share an opposite argument. In proof-of-stake, transaction validators put their funds at stake to attest that transactions are valid. The algorithm chooses who validates each transaction, giving more possibilities to nodes that put more coins at stake, which could open the door to centralization and government control.

In both cases, we're talking about long-term changes, but Bitcoin's proof-of-work has been evolving longer and seems to confirm those fears, while proof-of-stake is only employed in coins with a minuscule volume compared to Ethereum and has no predictive value.

As of mid-September, we will have two significant cryptocurrencies, each with a different consensus mechanisms and equally different characteristics: one is intrinsically conservative and used only for economic transactions, while the other has been evolving in open source mode, and can be used for other types of assets, smart contracts, or decentralized finance systems. Some even see it as the foundation of Web3.

Many things could change before September 15, but The Merge is likely to be a turning point. We'll have to follow this closely.

Mark Schaefer

Mark Schaefer

2 years ago

20 Fun Uses for ChatGPT

Our RISE community is stoked on ChatGPT. ChatGPT has countless uses.

Early on. Companies are figuring out the legal and ethical implications of AI's content revolution. Using AI for everyday tasks is cool.

So I challenged RISE friends... Let's have fun and share non-obvious uses.

Onward!

1. Tweet

Jim MacLeod requested a design-themed Twitter thread from ChatGPT.

2. Novelize

Giuseppe Fratoni writes novels.

"This is amazing!" Impotent. I asked about writing, mystery novels, and jazz.

"Develop a mystery novel plot in which a disillusioned homicide detective hunts a serial killer who targets jazz musicians who play Autumn Leaves."

"I have:

Detective James Thompson is a seasoned veteran of the Homicide department, but lately he’s been feeling burnt out and disillusioned. His latest case, the murder of a young jazz pianist who was found brutally killed in his home, only serves to deepen his sense of despair … (much more provided)

3. Question-and-answer sessions

Bliss recommends:

You have a guest speaker and want to ask audience questions.

Pre-generate questions with ChatGPT. "And here's a question from our AI?"

The conference is about Western water scarcity. Water management expert. My AI question was...

Which desalination-related questions should I ask an expert?

ChatGPT said...

  • How is desalination currently being used around the world, and in what types of locations is it most effective?

  • What are the potential advantages and disadvantages of using desalination to provide fresh water?

  • What are some of the key challenges and limitations of desalination technology, and how are they being addressed?

4. Game-making

Richard's a board game expert. He suggests using ChatGPT to plan games. Note: Some people have started getting help solving crossword puzzle clues.

5. Matchmaking

Tanya Thompson thinks it helps dating. ChatGPT:

Here are some flirty first-message ideas for dating apps:

I noticed you from afar. I had to say hi and see if we clicked.

Your profile picture is gorgeous. I'm obsessed with your [Feature] and want to know you better.

I don't usually message first, but I had to. You're [Attractive Quality] and I can't wait to talk.”

Hello. Your profile intimidates me. I'm starstruck by your [Attractiveness]. (Many instances)

5. Solitude/anxiety

ChatGPT excels at one-on-one conversations.

PepperBrooks: "I'm sad and lonely."

ChatGPT: I’m sorry to hear that you’re feeling sad and lonely. It’s natural to feel down sometimes, but it’s important to remember that you’re not alone. There are many people who care about you and want to help you. It can be helpful to talk to someone about your feelings, whether it’s a close friend, family member, or mental health professional.

Sometimes, just expressing your thoughts and emotions to someone else can help to alleviate your sadness and loneliness. It’s also important to take care of yourself and do things that make you happy, such as spending time with loved ones, pursuing a hobby, or exercising. These things can help to improve your mood and make you feel more connected to others. Remember that you are strong and capable, and that you can get through this difficult time.

Daniel Nestle asked ChatGPT to generate journal prompts to help him deal with anxiety.

  1. Write down the things that are causing you anxiety at the moment.

  2. Describe a situation in which you felt anxious and how you coped with it.

  3. Reflect on how your thoughts and beliefs contribute to your anxiety.

  4. Write a letter to your anxiety, expressing your feelings and concerns

  5. Imagine yourself in a calm and peaceful place, and describe it in detail.

  6. (many more items followed)

6. Names

Continued Daniel:

Also, naming ideas.

Me: Name this drink. Japanese gin, unsweetened tonic, lime, Szechuan pepper, grapefruit.

ChatGPT: How about “Sakura Sunrise?” The name incorporates the Japanese gin and the citrus flavors of grapefruit and lime, and the word “sunrise” suggests a fresh and invigorating start to the day. Alternatively, you could go with something like “Peppered Grapefruit Gin Fizz” to emphasize the unique flavor combination of Szechuan pepper and grapefruit.

7. Translation on the go

Monks recommends: ChatGPT is a perfect mobile translation tool. Say you need help in Italy.

ME: Translate to Italian

Where is the nearest gas station?

ChatGPT: “La mia auto sta per esaurire il carburante, mi puoi dire dove si trova la stazione di servizio più vicina?”

8. Fitness

Monks added:

ME: In 3 months, I want to run 5km. Plan out how I can do this.

ChatGPT: Here's a 3-month plan to run 5km.

  • Start by walking for 15–20 minutes each day to build up your endurance and get your body used to regular exercise.

  • After a week of walking, begin incorporating short jogs into your routine. Start by jogging for 1–2 minutes at a time, with walking breaks in between. Gradually increase the length of your jogs and reduce the amount of time you spend walking.

  • Once you can jog for 10 minutes without stopping, start increasing the distance of your runs. Aim to run 1km without stopping and then gradually increase the distance over time.

  • In addition to your regular runs, incorporate strength training and stretching into your routine to improve your overall fitness and reduce the risk of injury.

  • (more details continued on)

9. Integrations and coding

10. Teacher lesson plans

Spencer Crandall saved time.

This morning, I wondered who has the hardest job. Teachers.

Many students, little time. ChatGPT could handle lesson planning. I tried it and got this.

Lesson Title: The History and Impact of Artificial Intelligence

Students will understand the history and development of AI and the potential positive and negative impacts on society.

AI timeline AI technologies and applications

Overview:

  1. Introduce the topic of artificial intelligence, and explain that it refers to the development of computer systems and algorithms that can simulate human intelligence and behavior.

  2. Show the timeline of significant events in the history of AI, and discuss the key milestones and developments in the field.

  3. Show examples of AI technologies and applications, and explain how they are used in various industries and fields.

  4. Discuss the potential positive and negative impacts of AI on society, including its potential to improve productivity, efficiency, and safety, as well as its potential to create new challenges and concerns, such as job displacement and ethical issues.

(many more details followed)

11. Find podcast guests.

Joeri Billast suggested:

Who should be on my Web3 podcast?

ChatGPT: Web3 marketing experts, influencers, and thought leaders make great podcast guests. These include Web3 marketers, content creators, business owners, entrepreneurs, and technologists. You could invite Web3 startups and organizations to your podcast.

Please give examples.

ChatGPT: Ideal Web3 marketing podcast guests include:

  • Tim Berner-Lee, inventor of the World Wide Web

  • Chris Dixon, general partner at Andreessen Horowitz

  • Vitalik Buterin, founder of Ethereum

  • Joe Lubin, founder of ConsenSys

  • Susan Fowler, author of Whistleblower

  • (many other suggestions)

12. Comments and reviews on social media

Lisa Monk thinks ChatGPT can help retail staff with social media.

She asked ChatGPT to "review this restaurant"

POSITIVE CUSTOMER REVIEW: I absolutely love this place. We eat out a lot however this place has topped it all. Perfect meals, amazing staff and the timing for it all was great! Special thanks to Sophie B (you rock) From your guests all the way from the Gold Coast, THANK YOU

ChatGPT REPLY: Thank you so much for your kind words and for taking the time to write a review. We are delighted to hear that you had such a great experience at our restaurant. We are thrilled that you enjoyed your meal and the service provided by Sophie. It’s always a pleasure to serve guests visiting from the Gold Coast and we are grateful for your support. We look forward to welcoming you back again soon. Thank you again for your positive review.

CUSTOMER REVIEW: Most average food, there is a nice view, But that’s about it

ChatGPT: Thank you for your review. We apologize if your dining experience was not up to your expectations. We strive to provide top-quality food and service to all of our customers, and we will take your feedback into consideration as we continue to improve. Thank you for letting us know about your experience.

13. Crime-fighting

Zack Seipert said, "I researched some famous unsolved murders, and ChatGPT laid out the crime, suspects, clues, and more." I bet experienced detectives could solve some of these cold cases.

14. Reduce bias

Joanne Taylor struggles to remove biases from her writing. She asked ChatGPT for ideas.

I asked ChatGPT to check a text for racial bias, and it did well.

15. Furnishings

I designed a small, unique table using ChatGPT and MidJourney. I edited ChatGPT's idea for clarity and brevity before entering it in MidJourney.

Results:

16. Serialize a novel

Scott Scowcoft led ChatCPT through iterations of a story text to create serialized novel frames. You can view this here.

17. Interview preparation

I was on a sales podcast. Although this is marketing-related, it's not my forte. I asked ChatGPT for help with a sales interview. Response:

Here are some interview questions about the future of sales and how to answer them.

How will technology affect sales in the future?

Technology will impact sales in the coming years. Automation and AI could be used to handle routine tasks, and data analysis and CRM could become more important. E-commerce and online sales channels are also reshaping the sales landscape.

How will the salesperson's role change?

Future sales roles may change in response to changing customer needs and expectations. Salespeople must be knowledgeable and consultative to help customers navigate complex products and services. Increasing importance of data analysis and CRM tools will require salespeople to understand and use technology effectively.

Future sales professionals will need what skills?

Future salespeople will need many skills. Sales professionals must have strong communication and interpersonal skills, as well as product and service knowledge and the ability to use data analysis and CRM tools effectively. Adapting to changing customer needs and staying current on industry trends will also be important for sales success.

18. Gift ideas

I need Christmas gift ideas for my wife. I asked:

Suggest a gift idea under $200 for a middle-aged woman who loves The Eagles.

A middle-aged woman who loves The Eagles might like a vinyl record of "Hotel California" or "The Long Run." Many music fans enjoy the unique sound and experience of vinyl records.

Pair the record with a high-quality record player for a complete gift. The vinyl record and record player should fit within your $200 budget for an Eagles fan.

19. Explaining complex concepts

I entered: Explain quantum physics to me as if I were 10 years old.

Quantum physics is a branch of science that studies how tiny particles, like atoms and subatomic particles, behave. These particles are so small that they don’t always follow the same rules as the things we can see and touch every day.

For example, sometimes they can be in two places at the same time, or they can be friends with each other even if they are far apart. This might sound strange, but it’s what scientists have learned from studying these tiny particles. Quantum physics helps us understand how the world works at a very small scale, and it can also help us make new technologies, like computers that are much faster than the ones we have today.

20. AP-style editing

Blogs, journals, and books follow AP Style. I asked ChatGPT to "edit using AP Style" and it did a great job.

And then... "Write a catchy headline for a blog post about 16 ChatGPT uses"

Here are some possible blog post titles for 20 creative ChatGPT uses:

  • “20 Fun and Creative Ways to Use ChatGPT: From Games to Quizzes and More”

  • “The Ultimate Guide to Using ChatGPT for Entertainment and Creativity”

  • “20 Reasons to Use ChatGPT: How it Can Enhance Your Gaming, Storytelling, and More”

  • 20 Entertaining Uses for ChatGPT You Never Knew Were Possible”

  • “Unleash Your Imagination with ChatGPT: 16 Creative and Fun Ways to Use it”

In a previous post, I said ChatGPT will change marketing careers forever. I have never made a statement like that in my life. Even in the early days of the internet, people were cautious.

This technology was just released two weeks ago, and over a million people are already using it. This is the fastest technology adoption in history.

Today's post offers inventive and entertaining ideas, but it's just the beginning. ChatGPT writes code, music, and papers.

You might also like

Hannah Elliott

3 years ago

Pebble Beach Auto Auctions Set $469M Record

The world's most prestigious vintage vehicle show included amazing autos and record-breaking sums.

This 1932 Duesenberg J Figoni Sports Torpedo earned Best of Show in 2022.

This 1932 Duesenberg J Figoni Sports Torpedo earned Best of Show in 2022.

David Paul Morris (DPM)/Bloomberg

2022 Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance winner was a pre-war roadster.

Lee Anderson's 1932 Duesenberg J Figoni Sports Torpedo won Best of Show at Pebble Beach Golf Links near Carmel, Calif., on Sunday. First American win since 2013.

Sandra Button, chairperson of the annual concours, said the car, whose chassis and body had been separated for years, "marries American force with European style." "Its resurrection story is passionate."

Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance Auction

Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance Auction

Since 1950, the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance has welcomed the world's most costly collectable vehicles for a week of parties, auctions, rallies, and high-roller meetings. The cold, dreary weather highlighted the automobiles' stunning lines and hues.

DPM/Bloomberg

A visitor photographs a 1948 Ferrari 166 MM Touring Barchetta

A visitor photographs a 1948 Ferrari 166 MM Touring Barchetta. This is one of 25 Ferraris manufactured in the years after World War II. First shown at the 1948 Turin Salon. Others finished Mille Miglia and Le Mans, which set the tone for Ferrari racing for years.

DPM/Bloomberg

This year's frontrunners were ultra-rare pre-war and post-war automobiles with long and difficult titles, such a 1937 Talbot-Lago T150C-SS Figoni & Falaschi Teardrop Coupe and a 1951 Talbot-Lago T26 Grand Sport Stabilimenti Farina Cabriolet.

The hefty, enormous coaches inspire visions of golden pasts when mysterious saloons swept over the road with otherworldly style, speed, and grace. Only the richest and most powerful people, like Indian maharaja and Hollywood stars, owned such vehicles.

Antonio Chopitea, a Peruvian sugar tycoon, ordered a new Duesenberg in Paris. Hemmings says the two-tone blue beauty was moved to the US and dismantled in the 1960s. Body and chassis were sold separately and rejoined decades later in a three-year, prize-winning restoration.

The concours is the highlight of Monterey Car Week, a five-day Super Bowl for car enthusiasts. Early events included Porsche and Ferrari displays, antique automobile races, and new-vehicle debuts. Many auto executives call Monterey Car Week the "new auto show."

Many visitors were drawn to the record-breaking auctions.

A 1969 Porsche 908/02 auctioned for $4.185 million.

A 1969 Porsche 908/02 auctioned for $4.185 million. Flat-eight air-cooled engine, 90.6-inch wheelbase, 1,320-pound weight. Vic Elford, Richard Attwood, Rudi Lins, Gérard Larrousse, Kurt Ahrens Jr., Masten Gregory, and Pedro Rodriguez drove it, according to Gooding.

DPM/Bloomberg

The 1931 Bentley Eight Liter Sports Tourer doesn't meet its reserve

The 1931 Bentley Eight Liter Sports Tourer doesn't meet its reserve. Gooding & Co., the official auction house of the concours, made more than $105 million and had an 82% sell-through rate. This powerful open-top tourer is one of W.O. Bentley's 100 automobiles. Only 80 remain.

DPM/Bloomberg

The final auction on Aug. 21 brought in $456.1 million, breaking the previous high of $394.48 million established in 2015 in Monterey. “The week put an exclamation point on what has been an exceptional year for the collector automobile market,” Hagerty analyst John Wiley said.

Many cars that go unsold at public auction are sold privately in the days after. After-sales pushed the week's haul to $469 million on Aug. 22, up 18.9% from 2015's record.

In today's currencies, 2015's record sales amount to $490 million, Wiley noted. The dollar is degrading faster than old autos.

Still, 113 million-dollar automobiles sold. The average car sale price was $583,211, up from $446,042 last year, while multimillion-dollar hammer prices made up around 75% of total sales.

Industry insiders and market gurus expected that stock market volatility, the crisis in Ukraine, and the dollar-euro exchange rate wouldn't influence the world's biggest spenders.

Classic.com's CEO said there's no hint of a recession in an e-mail. Big sales and crowds.

Ticket-holders wore huge hats, flowery skirts, and other Kentucky Derby-esque attire.

Ticket-holders wore huge hats, flowery skirts, and other Kentucky Derby-esque attire. Coffee, beverages, and food are extra.

DPM/Bloomberg

Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing, 1955. Mercedes produced the two-seat gullwing coupe from 1954–1957 and the roadster from 1957–1963

Mercedes-Benz 300 SL Gullwing, 1955. Mercedes produced the two-seat gullwing coupe from 1954–1957 and the roadster from 1957–1963. It was once West Germany's fastest and most powerful automobile. You'd be hard-pressed to locate one for less $1 million.

DPM/Bloomberg

1955 Ferrari 410 Sport sold for $22 million at RM Sotheby's. It sold a 1937 Mercedes-Benz 540K Sindelfingen Roadster for $9.9 million and a 1924 Hispano-Suiza H6C Transformable Torpedo for $9.245 million. The family-run mansion sold $221.7 million with a 90% sell-through rate, up from $147 million in 2021. This year, RM Sotheby's cars averaged $1.3 million.

Not everyone saw such great benefits.

Gooding & Co., the official auction house of the concours, made more than $105 million and had an 82% sell-through rate. 1937 Bugatti Type 57SC Atalante, 1990 Ferrari F40, and 1994 Bugatti EB110 Super Sport were top sellers.

The 1969 Autobianchi A112 Bertone.

The 1969 Autobianchi A112 Bertone. This idea two-seater became a Hot Wheels toy but was never produced. It has a four-speed manual drive and an inline-four mid-engine arrangement like the Lamborghini Miura.

DPM/Bloomberg

1956 Porsche 356 A Speedster at Gooding & Co. The Porsche 356 is a lightweight,

1956 Porsche 356 A Speedster at Gooding & Co. The Porsche 356 is a lightweight, rear-engine, rear-wheel drive vehicle that lacks driving power but is loved for its rounded, Beetle-like hardtop coupé and open-top versions.

DPM/Bloomberg

Mecum sold $50.8 million with a 64% sell-through rate, down from $53.8 million and 77% in 2021. Its top lot, a 1958 Ferrari 250 GT 'Tour de France' Alloy Coupe, sold for $2.86 million, but its average price was $174,016.

Bonhams had $27.8 million in sales with an 88% sell-through rate. The same sell-through generated $35.9 million in 2021.

Gooding & Co. and RM Sotheby's posted all 10 top sales, leaving Bonhams, Mecum, and Hagerty-owned Broad Arrow fighting for leftovers. Six of the top 10 sellers were Ferraris, which remain the gold standard for collectable automobiles. Their prices have grown over decades.

Classic.com's Calle claimed RM Sotheby's "stole the show," but "BroadArrow will be a force to reckon with."

Although pre-war cars were hot, '80s and '90s cars showed the most appreciation and attention. Generational transition and new buyer profile."

2022 Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance judges inspect 1953 Siata 208

2022 Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance judges inspect 1953 Siata 208. The rounded coupe was introduced at the 1952 Turin Auto Show in Italy and is one of 18 ever produced. It sports a 120hp Fiat engine, five-speed manual transmission, and alloy drum brakes. Owners liked their style, but not their reliability.

DPM/Bloomberg

The Czinger 21 CV Max at Pebble Beach

The Czinger 21 CV Max at Pebble Beach. Monterey Car Week concentrates on historic and classic automobiles, but modern versions like this Czinger hypercar also showed.

DPM/Bloomberg

The 1932 Duesenberg J Figoni Sports Torpedo won Best in Show in 2022

The 1932 Duesenberg J Figoni Sports Torpedo won Best in Show in 2022. Lee and Penny Anderson of Naples, Fla., own the once-separate-chassis-from-body automobile.

DPM/Bloomberg

Maria Urkedal York

Maria Urkedal York

3 years ago

When at work, don't give up; instead, think like a designer.

How to reframe irritation and go forward

Picture by Daniel Xavier

… before you can figure out where you are going, you need to know where you are, and once you know and accept where you are, you can design your way to where you want to be.” — Bill Burnett and Dave Evans

“You’ve been here before. But there are some new ingredients this time. What can tell yourself that will make you understand that now isn’t just like last year? That there’s something new in this August.”

My coach paused. I sighed, inhaled deeply, and considered her question.

What could I say? I simply needed a plan from her so everything would fall into place and I could be the happy, successful person I want to be.

Time passed. My mind was exhausted from running all morning, all summer, or the last five years, searching for what to do next and how to get there.

Calmer, I remembered that my coach's inquiry had benefited me throughout the summer. The month before our call, I read Designing Your Work Life — How to Thrive and Change and Find Happiness at Work from Standford University’s Bill Burnett and Dave Evans.

A passage in their book felt like a lifeline: “We have something important to say to you: Wherever you are in your work life, whatever job you are doing, it’s good enough. For now. Not forever. For now.”

As I remembered this book on the coaching call, I wondered if I could embrace where I am in August and say my job life is good enough for now. Only temporarily.

I've done that since. I'm getting unstuck.

Here's how you can take the first step in any area where you feel stuck.

How to acquire the perspective of "Good enough for now" for yourself

We’ve all heard the advice to just make the best of a bad situation. That´s not bad advice, but if you only make the best of a bad situation, you are still in a bad situation. It doesn’t get to the root of the problem or offer an opportunity to change the situation. You’re more cheerfully navigating lousiness, which is an improvement, but not much of one and rather hard to sustain over time.” — Bill Burnett and Dave Evans

Reframing Burnett at Evans says good enough for now is the key to being happier at work. Because, as they write, a designer always has options.

Choosing to believe things are good enough for now is liberating. It helps us feel less victimized and less judged. Accepting our situation helps us become unstuck.

Let's break down the process, which designers call constructing your way ahead, into steps you can take today.

Writing helps get started. First, write down your challenge and why it's essential to you. If pen and paper help, try this strategy:

  • Make the decision to accept the circumstance as it is. Designers always begin by acknowledging the truth of the situation. You now refrain from passing judgment. Instead, you simply describe the situation as accurately as you can. This frees us from negative thought patterns that prevent us from seeing the big picture and instead keep us in a tunnel of negativity.

  • Look for a reframing right now. Begin with good enough for the moment. Take note of how your body feels as a result. Tell yourself repeatedly that whatever is occurring is sufficient for the time being. Not always, but just now. If you want to, you can even put it in writing and repeatedly breathe it in, almost like a mantra.

  • You can select a reframe that is more relevant to your situation once you've decided that you're good enough for now and have allowed yourself to believe it. Try to find another perspective that is possible, for instance, if you feel unappreciated at work and your perspective of I need to use and be recognized for all my new skills in my job is making you sad and making you want to resign. For instance, I can learn from others at work and occasionally put my new abilities to use.

  • After that, leave your mind and act in accordance with your new perspective. Utilize the designer's bias for action to test something out and create a prototype that you can learn from. Your beginning point for creating experiences that will support the new viewpoint derived from the aforementioned point is the new perspective itself. By doing this, you recognize a circumstance at work where you can provide value to yourself or your workplace and then take appropriate action. Send two or three coworkers from whom you wish to learn anything an email, for instance, asking them to get together for coffee or a talk.

Choose tiny, doable actions. You prioritize them at work.

Let's assume you're feeling disconnected at work, so you make a list of folks you may visit each morning or invite to lunch. If you're feeling unmotivated and tired, take a daily walk and treat yourself to a decent coffee.

This may be plenty for now. If you want to take this procedure further, use Burnett and Evans' internet tools and frameworks.

Developing the daily practice of reframing

“We’re not discontented kids in the backseat of the family minivan, but how many of us live our lives, especially our work lives, as if we are?” — Bill Burnett and Dave Evans

I choose the good enough for me perspective every day, often. No quick fix. Am a failing? Maybe a little bit, but I like to think of it more as building muscle.

This way, every time I tell myself it's ok, I hear you. For now, that muscle gets stronger.

Hopefully, reframing will become so natural for us that it will become a habit, and not a technique anymore.

If you feel like you’re stuck in your career or at work, the reframe of Good enough, for now, might be valuable, so just go ahead and try it out right now.

And while you’re playing with this, why not think of other areas of your life too, like your relationships, where you live — even your writing, and see if you can feel a shift?

Jan-Patrick Barnert

Jan-Patrick Barnert

3 years ago

Wall Street's Bear Market May Stick Around

If history is any guide, this bear market might be long and severe.

This is the S&P 500 Index's fourth such incident in 20 years. The last bear market of 2020 was a "shock trade" caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, although earlier ones in 2000 and 2008 took longer to bottom out and recover.

Peter Garnry, head of equities strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, compares the current selloff to the dotcom bust of 2000 and the 1973-1974 bear market marked by soaring oil prices connected to an OPEC oil embargo. He blamed high tech valuations and the commodity crises.

"This drop might stretch over a year and reach 35%," Garnry wrote.

Here are six bear market charts.

Time/depth

The S&P 500 Index plummeted 51% between 2000 and 2002 and 58% during the global financial crisis; it took more than 1,000 trading days to recover. The former took 638 days to reach a bottom, while the latter took 352 days, suggesting the present selloff is young.

Valuations

Before the tech bubble burst in 2000, valuations were high. The S&P 500's forward P/E was 25 times then. Before the market fell this year, ahead values were near 24. Before the global financial crisis, stocks were relatively inexpensive, but valuations dropped more than 40%, compared to less than 30% now.

Earnings

Every stock crash, especially earlier bear markets, returned stocks to fundamentals. The S&P 500 decouples from earnings trends but eventually recouples.

Support

Central banks won't support equity investors just now. The end of massive monetary easing will terminate a two-year bull run that was among the strongest ever, and equities may struggle without cheap money. After years of "don't fight the Fed," investors must embrace a new strategy.

Bear Haunting Bear

If the past is any indication, rising government bond yields are bad news. After the financial crisis, skyrocketing rates and a falling euro pushed European stock markets back into bear territory in 2011.

Inflation/rates

The current monetary policy climate differs from past bear markets. This is the first time in a while that markets face significant inflation and rising rates.


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